The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.03% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.01%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.10%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +0.05%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +0.09%.
Stock indexes are moving higher today. Stocks are supported today as lower crude prices have stabilized bond yields. Crude prices are under pressure today on signs that a steady flow of crude oil is coming out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns and inflation risks. The 10-year T-note yield is little changed today at 5.23% after soaring to a 19-year high of 5.27% on Monday.
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Today’s US economic news showed the July S&P composite-20 home price index rose +0.3% m/m and +2.47% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.20% y/y, with the +2.47% y/y gain the largest year-on-year increase in 14 months.
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) are down more than -1% today as signs of larger oil exports from Saudi Arabia are bearish for prices. Tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show Saudi Arabia's crude exports stood at 5.28 million bpd in September, the highest in seven months. Saudi Arabia also said it restored about 3.5 million bpd of the East-West Pipeline's 7 million bpd capacity on Monday after repairs restored the link damaged by drone strikes earlier this month. Crude losses are limited as hopes remain dim for an imminent breakthrough to end the war in Iran.
Markets are discounting a 70% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 2.5-week high and is up +0.78%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.18%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.60%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are up +2 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is down -0.7 bp to 5.229%. T-note prices are moving higher today as a -1% decline in WTI crude oil prices is easing inflation expectations. T-notes also have support as some month-end buying occurs, as bond fund managers purchase T-notes ahead of month-end portfolio rebalancing on Wednesday. T-notes fell back from their best level after the July S&P composite-20 home price index rose more than expected.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -4.8 bp to 3.595%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -5.5 bp to 5.367%.
The Eurozone Sep economic confidence indicator unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 97.9, weaker than expectations of an increase to 99.0.
Spain Sep CPI (EU harmonized) rose +5.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.9% y/y and the largest increase in 3.5 years. Sep core CPI rose +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.0% y/y.
Markets are discounting a 27% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI stocks are moving higher today, supporting gains in the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +1%. Applied Materials (AMAT) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +3%. Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are up more than +2%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML), Analog Devices (ADI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +1%.
Cruise stocks are climbing today, led by a +11% jump in Carnival (CCL) to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $2.24 from a previous estimate of $2.22. Also, Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) is up more than +5%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is up more than +4%.
Software stocks are under pressure for a second day today, limiting gains in the overall market. Datadog (DDOG) and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) are down more than -3%. Also, Atlassian Corp (TEAM) is down more than -2%, and ServiceNow (NOW), Autodesk (ADSK), Microsoft (MSFT), and Workday (WDAY) are down more than -1%.
Fair Isaac (FICO) is down more than -20% to lead credit reporting agencies lower after FHA director Pulte announced a move that makes it easier for lenders to adopt VantageScore, a move that will increase competition that could pressure credit companies’ market share and pricing power. Equifax (EFX) and TransUnion (TRU) are also down more than -4%.
Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) is up more than +9% after AstraZeneca said it would make a $2 billion strategic equity investment in the company to jointly develop drugs.
CarMax (KMX) is up more than +7% after reporting Q2 net sales and operating revenue of $7.88 billion, well above the consensus of $7.05 billion.
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) is up more than +7% after Oppenheimer & Co initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $24.
UniQure NV (QURE) is down more than -36% after saying the benefits of its Huntington’s disease gene therapy drug AMT-130 were not as good after four years as they were after three years in a small trial, a result that could complicate its bid to get the treatment approved by regulators.
Earnings Reports (9/29/2026)
AAR Corp (AIR), CarMax Inc (KMX), Carnival Corp Ltd (CCL), Concentrix Corp (CNXC), Critical Metals Corp (CRML), Uranium Energy Corp (UEC).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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