The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +1.05% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.814%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.35%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +0.99%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +1.37%.
Stock indexes are climbing sharply today, with the Nasdaq 100 posting a new all-time high. Stocks are rallying after today’s monthly US payroll report showed a sharp slowdown in US payrolls and benign wage pressures, which knocked bond yields lower and bolstered speculation that the Fed won’t be forced to raise interest rates this month. The 10-year T-note yield is down -4 bp to 5.20%, and the chance of a Fed rate hike at this month’s FOMC meeting fell to 19% from 26% before today’s payroll report. The lower bond yields today are booting chipmakers and pushed the Nasdaq 100 to a new record high.
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Lower crude oil prices are also helping market sentiment and lifting stocks, as the weak crude prices are pushing inflation expectations and bond yields lower. WTI crude is down sharply by more than -3% today after France proposed countries release 100 million bbl of crude and diesel supplies from strategic reserves.
US Sep nonfarm payrolls rose by +29,000, weaker than expectations of +90,000, and Aug payrolls were revised lower to +133,000 from the originally reported +162,000. The Sep unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 4.2%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 4.1%.
US Sep average hourly earnings rose +0.1% m/m and +3.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y.
Hawkish comments Thursday evening from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan were bearish for stocks and bonds when she said: "I currently estimate the fed funds target range needs to rise an additional 50 bp or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks for our dual mandate goals."
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) are down more than -3% today after France proposed that European countries and member nations of the International Energy Agency release 100 million bbl of diesel and crude from their strategic reserves to ease surging prices.
Markets are discounting a 19% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.68%. China's Shanghai Composite did not trade, with markets in China closed for the week-long Golden Week holidays. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.94%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are up +10 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -3.3 bp to 5.207%. T-notes are rallying today on a Fed-friendly Sep payroll report, which showed a smaller-than-expected increase in nonfarm payrolls and a smaller-than-expected increase in average hourly earnings. The report reduced the chance of a Fed rate hike this month to 16% from 26% before the payroll report. T-notes also have support today from the -3% plunge in WTI crude oil prices, which lowers inflation expectations. On the negative side for T-notes are hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who said the Fed needs at least another 50 bp of rate hikes to fully cool inflation.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 3-week low of 3.374% and is down -8.1 bp to 3.427%. The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 1-week low of 5.291% and is down -5.9 bp to 5.339%.
Eurozone Sep CPI rose +3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.7% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 3 years. Sep core CPI rose +2.5% y/y, right on expectations.
Markets are discounting a 14% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are gaining today, a positive factor for the overall market. Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +4%, and Nvidia (NVDA) is up more than +2%. Also,
Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) are up more than +1%, and Meta Platforms (META) is up +0.73%, Microsoft (MSFT) is up +0.70%, and Apple (AAPL) is up +0.30%.
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are moving higher today, supporting gains in the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +3% at a 2.75-month high. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +4%, and Analog Devices (ADI), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Intel (INTC), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are up more than +3%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Broadcom (CAVGO) are up more than +2%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are climbing today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +2% at a 1-week high. MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +6%, and Iren Ltd (IREN) is up more than +5%. Also, Riot Platforms (RIOT), Strategy (MSTR), and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are up more than +4%, and Bullish (BLSH), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and Robinhood Markets (HOOD) are up more than +3%. In addition, BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) is up more than +2%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +1%.
Synaptics (SYNA) is up more than +13%, and ON Semiconductor (ON) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after ON Semiconductor said it will buy Synaptics for $123 per share in cash.
Airbnb (ABNB) is up more than +1% after KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded the stock to overweight from sector weight with a price target of $191.
Nike (NKE) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after forecasting 2027 adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35, well below the consensus of $1.65.
Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is down more than -12% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 and Western Digital (WDC) is down more than -9% after Nikkei reported that Toshiba would invest 60 billion yen to double its production capacity for hard disk drives.
Earnings Reports (10/2/2026)
None.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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