The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.90% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.54%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.23%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +0.85%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +1.16%.
Stock indexes are climbing sharply today, with the Nasdaq 100 posting a new all-time high. Stocks are rallying after today’s US economic news was weaker than expected, bolstering speculation that the Fed won’t be forced to raise interest rates this month. Monthly US payrolls slowed sharply, and wage pressures were lower than expected. Also, Aug factory orders rose less than expected. The weaker reports reduced the chance of a Fed rate hike at this month’s FOMC meeting to 20% from 26% before today’s payroll report. Also, the rally in chipmakers today has pushed the Nasdaq 100 to a new record high.
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Lower crude oil prices are also helping market sentiment and lifting stocks, as the weak crude prices are pushing inflation expectations and bond yields lower. WTI crude is down sharply by more than -3% today after the Group of Seven nations (G7) and its partners will release 100 million bbl of crude and diesel supplies from strategic reserves.
US Sep nonfarm payrolls rose by +29,000, weaker than expectations of +90,000, and Aug payrolls were revised lower to +133,000 from the originally reported +162,000. The Sep unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 4.2%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 4.1%.
US Sep average hourly earnings rose +0.1% m/m and +3.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y.
US Aug factory orders rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m, and Aug factory orders ex-transportation rose +0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m.
Hawkish comments Thursday evening from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan were bearish for stocks and bonds when she said: "I currently estimate the fed funds target range needs to rise an additional 50 bp or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks for our dual mandate goals."
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) are down more than -3% today after the Group of Seven nations (G7) and its partners announced that they will release 100 million bbl of crude and diesel supplies from strategic reserves. The International Energy Agency is coordinating the release, which will take place over the next four months.
Markets are discounting a 20% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.15%. China's Shanghai Composite did not trade, with markets in China closed for the week-long Golden Week holidays. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.94%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are up +3 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -0.9 bp to 5.232%. T-notes are slightly higher today on a Fed-friendly Sep payroll report, which showed a smaller-than-expected increase in nonfarm payrolls and a smaller-than-expected increase in average hourly earnings. The report reduced the chance of a Fed rate hike this month to 20% from 26% before the payroll report. T-notes also have support today from the -3% plunge in WTI crude oil prices, which lowers inflation expectations. Gains in T-notes are limited due to hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who said the Fed needs at least another 50 bp of rate hikes to fully cool inflation.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 3-week low of 3.374% and is down -5.5 bp to 3.453%. The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 1-week low of 5.291% and is down -5.5 bp to 5.343%.
Eurozone Sep CPI rose +3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.7% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 3 years. Sep core CPI rose +2.5% y/y, right on expectations.
Markets are discounting a 15% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are gaining today, a positive factor for the overall market. Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +5%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) and Nvidia (NVDA) are up more than +2%. Also, Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Meta Platforms (META) are up more than +1%, and Microsoft (MSFT) is up +0.77%.
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are moving higher today, supporting gains in the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +2% at a 2.75-month high. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Microchip Technology (MCHP) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +4%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), KLA Corp (KLAC), Analog Devices (ADI), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Intel (INTC) are up more than +3, and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT), Broadcom (AVGO), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +2%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are climbing today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +1% at a 1-week high. Iren Ltd (IREN) is up more than +7%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Robinhood Markets (HOOD) are up more than +5%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +4%, and Bullish (BLSH) is up more than +3%. In addition, Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is up more than +2%, and BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) and Coinbase Global (COIN) are up more than +1%.
Synaptics (SYNA) is up more than +13%, and ON Semiconductor (ON) is up more than +5% after ON Semiconductor said it will buy Synaptics for $123 per share in cash.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Susquehanna Financial raised its price target on the stock to $70 from $40.
Airbnb (ABNB) is up more than +1% after KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded the stock to overweight from sector weight with a price target of $191.
Nike (NKE) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after forecasting 2027 adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35, well below the consensus of $1.65.
Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is down more than -15% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 and Western Digital (WDC) is down more than -13% after Nikkei reported that Toshiba would invest 60 billion yen to double its production capacity for hard disk drives.
Earnings Reports (10/2/2026)
None.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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