The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.26% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.21%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.31%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +0.20%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +0.16%.
Stock indexes are moving higher today, supported by lower crude oil prices. WTI crude oil is down nearly -1% today as Middle East tensions eased after President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections.
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Also, concerns about slowing demand for AI-infrastructure stocks eased today after people familiar with the matter said OpenAI is expecting to reach or exceed $70 billion in annualized revenue by the end of the year, refuting a report from the Financial Times on Thursday that said OpenAI is on track to generate annualized revenue of roughly $50 billion based on its current performance.
Earnings optimism is a bullish factor for stock prices. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Q3 S&P 500 profits are expected to climb by +25% from a year earlier, up from a July estimate of 22%. Q3 earnings season begins next week when US money center banks report.
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) are down nearly -1% today after President Trump said the US would not attack Iran ahead of next month’s midterm elections, citing “productive discussions” with Iran. Losses in crude may be limited today as signs point to lower US crude output and threats to refining capacity. Roughly 1.28 million bpd of crude output, or 63% of US Gulf crude production, has been shut in, and Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall along the Gulf Coast later today or tomorrow, threatening 500,000 bpd of refining capacity. Also, due to Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the cost to ship oil out of the Middle East is soaring, with freight rates from the Middle East to China jumping to $1.4 million a day, the most on record.
Markets are discounting a 19% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.18%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 2.5-month low and closed up +0.05%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.02%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are down by -7 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.0 bp to 5.257%. T-notes are under pressure today from stronger stocks, which curbs safe-haven demand for government debt. T-note losses are limited today, with WTI crude oil prices down nearly -1%, easing inflation expectations.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.6 bp to 3.469%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -5.2 bp to 5.429%.
Italy's Aug industrial production fell -1.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of no change and the biggest decline in a year.
Markets are discounting a 11% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Optical-equipment makers are rallying today after Lumentum Holdings said its components are “completely sold out” through 2029 on high demand from tech companies clamoring for faster AI data centers. Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is up more than +9%, and Coherent (COHR) is up more than +8%. Also, Lumentum Holdings (LITE) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Fabrinet (FN) is up more than +3%.
Tower companies are gaining today after SpaceX said it had agreed to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio in a deal analysts say is a positive catalyst for the sector. Crown Castle (CCI) is up more than +11%, and American Tower (AMT) and SBA Communications (SBAC) are up more than -7%.
Humana (HUM) is up more than +14% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and health insurance stocks higher after data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services showed improved ratings for the company’s Medicare Advantage contract, allowing it to earn bonus payments. Also, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Elevance Health (ELV) and Centene (CNC) are up more than +2%. In addition, Molina Healthcare (MOH), and the Cigna Group (CI) are up more than +1%.
Telecom stocks are retreating today after SpaceX said it had agreed to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio, which will increase competition from satellite operators. T-Mobile US (TMUS) is down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Also, AT&T (T) is down more than -7%, and Verizon Communications (VZ) is down more than -6%. In addition, Charter Communications (CHTR) is down more than -3%, and Comcast (CMCSA) is down more than -1%.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is down more than -3% to lead airline stocks lower after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $5.10 to $5.60 from a previous estimate of $6.50 to $7.50, the midpoint below the consensus of $5.44. Also, American Airlines Group (AAL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Alaska Air Group (ALK) are down more than -2%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) is down more than -1%.
Fastly (FSLY) is up more than +6% after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to outperform from perform, with a price target of $35.
Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) is up more than +3% after Morgan Stanley double-upgraded the stock to overweight from underweight, with a price target of $358.
Apple (AAPL) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after cutting component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max following weaker-than-expected demand. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), a supplier of Apple, also dropped -6% on the news.
Earnings Reports (10/9/2026)
Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL), Hingham Institution For Savings (HIFS), Nurix Therapeutics Inc (NRIX).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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