The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.05%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.69%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +0.15%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +0.61%.
Stocks are seeing support today from improved AI sentiment after better-than-expected sales from SpaceX (SPCX) and server company Super Micro Computer (SMCI). Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA) are scheduled to release earnings after today’s close. SpaceX is up more than +7% today.
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Stocks are also seeing support today from a mild -0.5% decline in Dec WTI crude oil prices (CLZ26). Crude oil prices are lower as flows through the Strait of Hormuz improve and approach pre-war levels. Crude oil prices are trading lower despite reports that another ship was struck near Oman and Iran’s claim that a supertanker hit a sea mine in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said the US should drop its naval blockade on Iranian ships if it wants to prove it is serious about peace.
Stocks are supported by the prospect of solid quarterly earnings. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Q3 S&P 500 earnings are expected to climb by +25% from a year earlier, up from a July estimate of 22%. As of Tuesday, 60 of the S&P 500 companies have reported results, with 83% beating estimates.
Markets are discounting a 15% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.29%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.60%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.85%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are up +4.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.7 bp to 5.092%. T-notes are supported today by slightly lower oil prices, which led to a -0.4 bp decline in the 10-year inflation expectations rate to 2.354%.
European government bond yields are steady to lower. The 10-year German bund yield is unchanged at 3.401%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -4.6 bp to 5.364%.
Markets are discounting a 6% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven are mixed today, with leaders including gains of more than +3% in Tesla (TSLA), +2% in Meta (META), and +1% in Nvidia (NVDA).
SpaceX (SPCX) is up more than +7% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 revenue, driven by growth in its AI and Starlink segments. That news followed Elon Musk’s statement that the Tesla (SPCX) and SpaceX boards are considering a SpaceX-Tesla merger.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is up more than +13% after reporting stronger-than-expected preliminary Q2 server sales tied to AI-related demand.
Capital One (COF) is up more than +3% after better-than-expected Q3 earnings due to higher revenue and stable expenses.
United Airlines (UAL) is up more than +2% despite forecasting weaker-than-expected earnings for calendar Q4 of $0.50-1.50 a share, below the consensus of $1.88.
AT&T (T) is down more than -4% after reporting disappointing wireless phone account growth.
Netflix (NFLX) is down more than -3% after a weaker-than-expected revenue forecast.
Abbott Labs (ABT) is down more than -2% after announcing that it plans to spin off its nutrition unit into a separate publicly-traded company. Abbott plans to focus on its healthcare-focused units in medical devices, diagnostics, and established drugs, and offload its nutrition business that has been hurt by various problems, including infant formula problems. The spin-off, via a tax-free distribution to Abbott shareholders, is expected to be completed by the end of 2027.
Earnings Reports (10/21/2026)
Abbott Laboratories (ABT), AT&T Inc (T), CME Group Inc (CME), Crown Castle Inc (CCI), CSX Corp (CSX), Danaher Corp (DHR), Elevance Health Inc (ELV), Globe Life Inc (GL), International Business Machines (IBM), Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI), Lam Research Corp (LRCX), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Moody's Corp (MCO), NextEra Energy Inc (NEE), Northern Trust Corp (NTRS), Packaging Corp of America (PKG), Philip Morris International Inc (PM), Rollins Inc (ROL), Southwest Airlines Co (LUV), Teledyne Technologies Inc (TDY), Tesla Inc (TSLA), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO), United Rentals Inc (URI), Westinghouse Air Brake Technol (WAB).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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