Valero Energy Corporation VLO and Kinder Morgan KMI are two leading players in the energy industry with contrasting business operations. KMI is a midstream energy player that owns and operates a vast storage and transportation network, comprising nearly 78,000 miles of pipelines, 136 terminals and over 700 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage capacity.
On the other hand, Valero Energy is a leading firm in the downstream sector, with an extensive refining footprint. Notably, VLO operates a network of 14 refineries with approximately 3 million barrels per day of high-complexity throughput capacity. Its combined Nelson Complexity Index of 11.5 indicates that the company can process and refine a wide variety of feedstocks into higher-value products.
Over the past six months, VLO shares have rallied 47.4%, outperforming KMI’s 18.3% gain. Price performance alone does not fully indicate a stock’s attractiveness or strength, as it merely reflects investor sentiment across market cycles. Hence, it is necessary to assess the fundamentals and broader operating environment of both stocks before arriving at an investment decision.
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Valero Benefits From Heavy Crude Discounts & Refining Fundamentals
Valero Energy stands out as a premier refining operator with an advantaged refining portfolio mainly concentrated in the U.S. Gulf Coast. This enables the company to benefit from access to discounted heavy crude, export infrastructure and exposure to global product markets.
In its first-quarter earnings call, VLO mentioned that the supply of incremental heavy crude barrels from Venezuela led to wider crude differentials. This trend was further amplified during the Middle East crisis, as certain heavy crude grades, including Canadian heavy crude, began trading at deeper discounts, and its Gulf Coast refining network enabled it to take advantage of discounted heavy sour barrels. This is expected to act as a tailwind for its refining business moving into the second quarter.
Additionally, its complex refining system is capable of processing heavy sour grades into high-value refined products efficiently. The flexibility of Valero’s refinery systems allows it to shift product yields between light products and distillates based on market signals to capture higher margins during volatile periods. This gives the refining player a competitive edge, as it can shift its production toward higher-margin products.
The macroeconomic backdrop also remains favorable. Management noted that global refining capacity remains constrained and the global demand is expected to surpass new capacity additions by year-end. The recent conflict has made this tightening even more pronounced by disrupting global energy flows. Moreover, low product inventories in key markets are expected to support refining fundamentals and keep margins steady.
Natural Gas Demand Growth Strengthens Kinder Morgan’s Outlook
Kinder Morgan offers a compelling investment case by providing a low-risk path to gain exposure to the structural growth in U.S. natural gas demand. The company combines an extensive natural gas infrastructure footprint, highly contracted cash flows, a large and attractive growth backlog, and growing shareholder returns. KMI’s large natural gas transmission network transports approximately 40% of the U.S. natural gas production.
The natural gas growth story is supported by strong energy market fundamentals, including rising LNG exports and power demand. Kinder Morgan’s assets are well-positioned to support growth in LNG exports, particularly along the export hubs in Texas and the Louisiana Gulf Coast. KMI already has long-term contracts to move 8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) to LNG facilities and expects this figure to surpass 12 Bcf/d by the end of 2028. More than 20% of the company’s $10.1 billion contracted project backlog is directed toward serving LNG demand, and management indicated that it is actively pursuing additional opportunities.
Additionally, growing gas-fired power demand is creating incremental demand for natural gas, creating an opportunity for KMI to capitalize on. Kinder Morgan highlighted that about 60% of its $10.1 billion contracted project backlog is directed toward power generation and utility demand. The company is actively pursuing projects to serve more than 10 Bcf/d of additional natural gas demand in the power sector. Additionally, the expansion of data centers, the replacement of coal-fired power plants and population migration and growth in the Southern U.S. are expected to enhance the strategic value of KMI’s pipeline and storage assets.
Moreover, as a leading player in the midstream space, Kinder Morgan generates stable and predictable cash flows. KMI has highlighted that 96% of its cash flows are either take-or-pay, fee-based or hedged. Notably, 65% of cash flows are tied to take-or-pay contracts and 26% of the cash flow mix comes from fee-based contracts. Only 4% of its total cash flows are unhedged and are exposed to commodity price volatility. This enables the company to remain resilient and maintain competitive shareholder returns through business cycles.
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Valuation Snapshot
Considering the valuation snapshot, it has become evident that Valero Energy is currently trading at a discount compared with Kinder Morgan. This is reflected in the fact that VLO trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 7.25X, below KMI’s 13.96X.
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VLO vs KMI: Should You Buy or Wait?
VLO and KMI have contrasting business models and, consequently, offer different strengths. VLO offers stronger upside potential in the current environment due to constrained refining capacity globally and its strategic advantage of shifting product yields based on market signals to capture higher margins. Meanwhile, Kinder Morgan provides greater business stability through contracted cash flows and a low-risk way to participate in the natural gas growth story.
Both VLO and KMI carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). However, VLO is trading at a more attractive valuation, making it a better choice for investors at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).