Tractor Supply Company TSCO is likely to register increases in the top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 results on June 23, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $4.6 billion, indicating a 4.6% jump from the year-ago reported figure.
The bottom line of the leading rural lifestyle retailer in the United States is expected to have risen year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has been moved down by a penny to 85 cents in the past 30 days, indicating a 4.9% rise from the year-ago period’s reported figure.
Tractor Supply has a negative trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.7%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Brentwood, TN-based company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.4%.
Tractor Supply Company Price and EPS Surprise
Tractor Supply Company price-eps-surprise | Tractor Supply Company Quote
Key Factors Likely to Impact TSCO’s Q2 Results
Tractor Supply’s second-quarter 2026 results are expected to reflect higher expenses for a while. The company expects an increase in SG&A expenses due to deleveraged fixed costs and an accelerated store opening cadence. On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management anticipated higher SG&A deleverage in the first half, owing to the timing of store openings, more normalized incentive compensation and the lapping of earlier strategic investments.
Our model indicates a 7.6% year-over-year increase in SG&A expenses for the second quarter, with the SG&A expense rate rising 50 basis points to 21.7%. Depreciation and amortization expenses are expected to increase 5.2% year over year.
Tractor Supply also faces headwinds from soft discretionary spending, pressured rural consumer demand and cautious big-ticket purchases. Persistent inflation and interest rates are weighing on traffic and ticket sizes, while weather volatility impacts seasonal categories. Margin pressure from elevated labor, freight and promotional activity remains concerning. Slower farm income trends and increased competition add to near-term uncertainty.
However, Tractor Supply has been gaining from consistent market share expansion and positive customer trends. In addition, the company benefits from the execution of its everyday low-price strategy. Tractor Supply is focused on its Life Out Here lifestyle assortment and convenient shopping format to attract customers and expand market share. The strategy is essentially based on five key pillars, which include customers, digitization, execution, team members and total shareholder return.
Our model indicates a 6.5% year-over-year increase in gross profit for the second quarter, with the gross margin increasing 60 basis points to 37.5%. Operating profit is expected to increase 5% year over year.
Tractor Supply is focused on its growth initiatives, which include the expansion of its store base and the incorporation of technological advancements to induce traffic and drive the top line. The major Life Out Here 2030 strategy aims to strengthen community engagement, drive traffic and enhance customer satisfaction through improved store accessibility and relevance. The company's store expansion efforts are key parts of its strategy to deliver sustainable growth in both urban-edge and rural markets.
What Does the Zacks Model Unveil for TSCO?
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tractor Supply this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Tractor Supply has an Earnings ESP of -2.52% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) at present.
Valuation & Price Performance of TSCO Stock
From a valuation perspective, Tractor Supply stock trades at a premium relative to the Zacks Retail - Miscellaneous industry. The company has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 13.55X, below the industry’s average of 14.3X. However, the stock trades below the historical benchmarks, with a five-year high of 27.91X.
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TSCO shares have lost 33% in the past three months compared with the industry's 16.9% decline.
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Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates
Here are a few companies that have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:
Urban Outfitters Inc. URBN has an Earnings ESP of +1.98% and sports a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. URBN’s earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 are pegged at $1.72 per share, suggesting 8.9% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for its quarterly earnings has moved up by a penny in the past 30 days. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Urban Outfitters’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.65 billion, which suggests growth of 9.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. URBN has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12.2%, on average.
Somnigroup International Inc. SGI has an Earnings ESP of +2.43% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The consensus estimate for Somnigroup’s second-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at 58 cents per share, implying growth of 9.4% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
For Somnigroup’s quarterly revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.9 billion, which indicates an increase of 0.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. SGI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.8%, on average.
Tapestry Inc. TPR has an Earnings ESP of +4.84% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.87 billion, implying 8.6% growth from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
The consensus estimate for Tapestry earnings is pegged at $1.24 per share, suggesting 19.2% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. TPR delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.6%, on average.
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Tractor Supply Company (TSCO): Free Stock Analysis Report
Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN): Free Stock Analysis Report
Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI): Free Stock Analysis Report
Tapestry, Inc. (TPR): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).