American Airlines AAL is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s second-quarter 2026 earnings is currently pegged at 5 cents per share, indicating a decline of a cent in the past 60 days. The consensus mark implies a 94.7% downward movement from the year-ago actual.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s second-quarter 2026 revenues is currently pegged at $16.7 billion. The consensus mark implies a 16% upward movement from the year-ago actual.
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s revenues is pegged at $62.22 billion, implying an increase of 13.9% year over year. The consensus mark for full-year EPS is pinned at 49 cents, calling for a 36.1% year-over-year expansion. Moreover, the consensus mark for 2026 EPS points to a massive 357.9% upward revision over the past 60 days.
AAL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters (missing the mark once). The average beat is 2.6%.
American Airlines Price and EPS Surprise
American Airlines price-eps-surprise | American Airlines Quote
Given this backdrop, let us examine the factors that might have influenced American Airlines’ performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
The interim peace deal between the United States and Iran has resulted in a sharp fall in oil prices. This development is likely to have aided AAL’s bottom-line performance since expenses on fuel represent a key input cost for airlines.
Moreover, strong bookings are likely to have aided AAL’s top-line performance in the June quarter. High labor costs are likely to have hurt the bottom line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-fuel unit cost, or cost per available seat mile (CASM: adjusted), is pegged at 13.99 cents compared with 13.59 cents reported in the second quarter of 2025.
Despite having come down from the highs witnessed when the war between the nations was in full flow, oil prices are fluctuating, given the fragility of the interim peace deal. In this scenario, focus will also be on AAL’s guidance for the September quarter as well as for full-year 2026.
What Our Model Says About AAL
Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
AAL has an Earnings ESP of +67.44% (the Most Accurate Estimate is 4 cents above the Zacks Consensus Estimate) and a Zacks Rank #2.
Highlights of AAL’s Q1 Earnings
American Airlines posted a loss (excluding 18 cents from non-recurring items) of 40 cents per share in the first quarter of 2026, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 45 cents. The carrier reported a loss of 59 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Operating revenues of $13.91 billion rose 10.8% year over year and edged past the consensus mark of $13.81 billion. Management pointed to strengthening demand and unit revenue trends as core drivers, even after an estimated $320 million revenue impact from winter storms.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are a few other stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
CSX Corporation CSX has an Earnings ESP of +1.31% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
CSX is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 22. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 3 cents over the past 30 days to 50 cents per share. CSX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed in the remaining one, the average beat being 3.2%.
Union Pacific UNP has an Earnings ESP of +0.34% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. UNP is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 23.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings has moved up 6 cents to $3.20 per share over the past 30 days. UNP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (missing the mark on the other occasion). The average beat is 2.3%.
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American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).