Vale S.A. VALE is set to release its second-quarter 2026 results on July 30, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s sales is pegged at $10.18 billion, indicating a 15.6% increase from the year-ago quarter's reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings has moved down 18.7% over the past 60 days to 39 cents per share. The figure indicates a 22% year-over-year decline.
VALE’s Earnings Surprise History
Vale’s earnings performance has been mixed in recent quarters. Earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the mark in the other two, delivering an average surprise of 7.23%.
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What the Zacks Model Unveils for VALE Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vale this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Vale is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Vale currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped Vale's Q2 Performance
Vale recently released its second-quarter production and sales update, offering an insight into its expected quarterly performance.
Iron ore production was 84.3 Mt, a 0.8% year-over-year increase. This performance was driven by record output at the S11D mine as well as the ramp-up of the Capanema and VGR1 projects. Pellet production was down 7% year over year to 7.3 Mt, owing to the temporary suspension of production at the Oman pellet plants amid the Middle East conflict and the associated logistical constraints.
Iron ore fines sales grew 3.4% from the year-ago quarter to 69.9 Mt. Pellet sales increased 3.5% to 7.7 Mt. Total iron ore sales rose 3% year over year to 79.7 Mt, reflecting the sale of inventories from previous periods and higher production.
Average realized iron ore fines prices were $95 per ton in the quarter, up 11.6% year over year. Realized prices for iron ore pellets were up 2% to $137 per ton.
Copper production was up 6.3% year over year to 98.4 kt. Record production at Salobo and improved performance at Sossego and Voisey’s Bay led to the year-over-year improvement. Vale sold 97.6 kt of copper in the second quarter, which was 9.7% higher than the prior-year quarter, in line with the production increase.
The average realized price for copper operations only (Salobo and Sossego) was $14,062 per ton, marking a 56.5% year-over-year surge. The average realized copper price for all operations (including copper sales originating from nickel operations) was $14,095 per ton.
Nickel production for the quarter was 42 kt, up 4.2% year over year. Higher output from Onça Puma as well as record production at Long Harbour helped offset the impact of the biennial planned maintenance at Sudbury downstream facilities.
Nickel sales were recorded at 44.4 kt, up 7.2% from the year-ago quarter. The average realized nickel price was $18,061 per ton, up 14.3% from the year-ago quarter.
Revenues for the Iron Solutions segment are expected to have benefited from higher iron ore volumes and improved pricing. Higher volumes and prices for both copper and nickel are also expected to have boosted the Base Metals segment’s revenues.
While Vale’s top-line results are expected to reflect higher sales volumes and prices, elevated operating costs are likely to have weighed on its earnings. Vale’s ongoing cost-control initiatives are expected to have cushioned some of the impact.
VALE Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation
In a year, shares of Vale have gained 45.2% compared with the industry’s 38.9% growth.
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Stocks Likely to Deliver Earnings Beat
Here are some Basic Material stocks with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.
Ternium TX, scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 earnings on Aug. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +21.40% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for Ternium for the second quarter of 2026 is pegged at $1.29 per share, suggesting an 0.8% year-over-year increase. TX has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.51%.
Avient AVNT, scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 earnings on Aug. 6, has an Earnings ESP of +70.87% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for Avient for the second quarter of 2026 is 89 cents per share, indicating an 11.2% year-over-year increase. Avient has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 2.1%.
Element Solutions ESI, scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 27, has an Earnings ESP of +1.54% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Element Solutions’ earnings for the second quarter of 2026 is pegged at 73 cents per share, indicating 16% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. Element Solutions has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 4.6%.
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VALE S.A. (VALE): Free Stock Analysis Report
Element Solutions Inc. (ESI): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).