Pre-Q2 Earnings: Is Chevron Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell?

Chevron Corporation CVX is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 31, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $57.5 billion, implying an increase of 28.4% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus earnings mark of $5.81 per share has been revised upward by 1.8% over the past seven days, suggesting a 228.3% jump from the year-ago reported number.

For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVX’s revenues is pegged at $215.9 billion, implying an improvement of 14.2% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 earnings per share stands at $15.60, indicating a surge of 114%.

CVX's Earnings Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 53.3%. Chevron’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 18.6%.

Chevron Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Chevron Corporation price-eps-surprise | Chevron Corporation Quote

Q2 Earnings Whispers for Chevron

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Chevron is likely to beat estimates in the second quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: CVX has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $5.81 per share each.

Zacks Rank: Chevron currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this earnings season.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping CVX’s Upcoming Q2 Results

Chevron's exploration and production business likely benefited from another quarter of solid production growth, supported by continued ramp-up across major assets. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 production guidance of 3.98-4.10 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day (BOE/d), while highlighting that second-quarter production was expected to exceed the first quarter despite planned maintenance. Operations at TCO were running above 1 million BOE/d day, Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG were operating at full rates, and Permian production remained above 1 million BOE/d. These factors, combined with stronger oil and gas prices, could have lifted upstream earnings even after accounting for an estimated 100,000-150,000 BOE per day turnaround impact. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second-quarter upstream segment is currently pegged at a profit of $8.3 billion compared to the year-ago income of $2.7 billion.

Chevron's downstream business likely received support from improved refining margins and higher utilization across its global refining network. Management indicated that U.S. refineries achieved record crude throughput, while Asia refinery utilization was expected to remain around 80% during the second quarter. The company also emphasized growing integration benefits by directing more equity crude into its refining system, helping capture additional value across the supply chain. Historical trends further suggest that downstream earnings have frequently exceeded expectations, with the segment posting positive earnings surprises in several recent quarters, including 36.5% in first-quarter 2026 and 16.7% in second-quarter 2025. According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, downstream income is expected to jump to some $4 billion from just $737 million in second-quarter 2025.

But on a somewhat bearish note, Chevron's second-quarter earnings could have faced pressure from elevated investment spending alongside softer downstream sales volumes. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 capital expenditures is pegged at about $4.7 billion, well above the $3.7 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. At the same time, consensus mark for worldwide refined product sales of roughly 2.7 million barrels per day is slightly below the second-quarter 2025 levels.

Updates From Chevron’s Global Peers: ExxonMobil and Shell

Rival ExxonMobil Holdings XOM heads into its second-quarter earnings with stronger oil prices expected to have been the biggest driver of results. ExxonMobil estimates that higher liquids prices alone could have lifted earnings by about $3.5-$3.9 billion from the prior quarter. ExxonMobil also expects better refining, chemicals and specialty product margins to have provided an additional boost. These positives are likely to have outweighed production disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, although management has cautioned that operational shutdowns and supply interruptions will have partly offset the benefits.

Meanwhile, European oil major Shell plc SHEL has outlined a mixed but improving outlook. Shell expects lower gas production because of disruptions in Qatar linked to the Middle East conflict, but stronger gas trading should help offset much of that weakness. Shell is also benefiting from improved refining and chemicals margins, refinery utilization near full capacity and a recovery in working capital, all of which should support cash flow. While geopolitical risks remain, the company's diversified operations provide several earnings drivers beyond production volumes.

CVX Price Performance & Stock Valuation

Shares of Chevron have gone up 11% in the past six-month period compared with the broader Zacks Energy sector’s growth of 11.7%. Shares of XOM have gained 10.1%, while SHEL stock has gone up 11.5%.

6-Month Price Performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation perspective — in terms of forward price-to-earnings ratio — Chevron is trading at a premium compared to the industry average. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 11.81.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

How Should You Play CVX Pre-Q2 Earnings?

Chevron enters its second-quarter earnings release with solid operating momentum and a generally balanced outlook. Higher production from the Permian Basin, Tengiz and LNG assets, together with stronger commodity prices and improved refining margins, should support a substantial year-over-year earnings increase. The company’s cost-reduction initiatives and consistent shareholder distributions further strengthen its investment case. The Microsoft power agreement also creates a potential long-term growth avenue tied to rising data-center electricity demand. However, elevated capital spending and slightly weaker refined-product sales volumes could limit near-term upside. Overall, Chevron’s strengths and risks appear evenly balanced ahead of the results.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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