General Mills (GIS) Down 3.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for General Mills (GIS). Shares have lost about 3.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is General Mills due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for General Mills, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

General Mills Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Organic Sales Flat Y/Y

General Mills reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of 95 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 82 cents. The bottom line also increased 27% year over year on a constant-currency (cc) basis, driven by elevated adjusted operating profit, a reduced adjusted effective tax rate and fewer shares outstanding, partially offset by higher net interest expense.

Net sales increased 1% to $4,609.6 million, benefiting from a 7-point contribution from the 53rd week and a 1-point benefit from foreign currency exchange, partially offset by a 7-point headwind from the net impact of divestitures and acquisitions. On an organic basis, sales were broadly unchanged, including a 1-point benefit from favorable trade expense timing. The top line also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,604 million.

The adjusted gross margin increased 150 basis points (bps), reaching 34.2% of net sales, supported by favorable pricing and mix, with higher input costs partially offsetting these gains. Favorable trade expense timing contributed a 60 bps benefit to adjusted gross margin. We expected an adjusted gross margin expansion of 50 bps. General Mills’ adjusted operating profit increased 13% in constant currency to $705 million, driven by elevated adjusted gross profit dollars, including a 7-point benefit from favorable trade expense timing. Adjusted operating margin improved 160 bps to 15.3%. We expected an adjusted operating margin of 14.3% for the quarter.

Decoding GIS’ Segmental Performance

North America Retail: Revenues in the segment were $2,466.6 million, down 4% year over year, including a 10-point headwind from the divestiture and a 7-point benefit from the 53rd week. Organic net sales were essentially unchanged from the prior year, while Nielsen-measured retail sales declined 4%. The difference was primarily cused by a previously anticipated 2-point benefit from trade expense timing and favorable changes in retailer inventory levels.

North America Pet: Revenues rose 4% year over year to $702.4 million, benefiting by 7-points from the 53rd week. Sales grew at a double-digit rate in cat food, increased at a low-single-digit rate in dog food and declined slightly in pet treats. Organic net sales declined 3%, while all-channel retail sales fell approximately 1%. The difference was largely attributable to changes in retailer inventory levels.

North America Foodservice: Revenues were $574.6 million, which decreased 1%, including a 7-point headwind from the U.S. yogurt divestiture and a 6-point benefit from the 53rd week. Organic net sales were essentially flat, including a 2-point headwind from index pricing on bakery flour.

International: Revenues in the segment were $858.4 million, up 16% year over year, benefiting from an 8-point contribution from the 53rd week and a 5-point benefit from foreign currency exchange. Organic net sales grew 3%, driven by strong performance in Brazil, Europe, India and China.

What to Expect From GIS in Fiscal 2027?

General Mills expects consumer demand to remain challenging in fiscal 2027 and plans to drive growth through product innovation focused on health, flavor, indulgence and pet humanization trends. The company aims to support profitability with at least $750 million in cost savings, although earnings will face headwinds from the absence of the prior year's 53rd week, higher incentive expenses and the impact of recent divestitures.

The company has provided its full-year fiscal 2027 outlook. Organic net sales are projected to range from a decline of 1.5% to growth of 0.5%. On a constant-currency basis, adjusted operating profit is expected to be down 8% to 13% from the fiscal 2026 base of $2.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $3.00 and $3.20, with an immaterial impact from foreign currency exchange. The company also expects free cash flow conversion to be approximately 95% of adjusted after-tax earnings.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -10.82% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, General Mills has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise General Mills has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

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