ConocoPhillips COP is set to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 6, before the opening bell.
Let us delve into the factors that are likely to have influenced the performance of the leading independent exploration and production player. However, before that, it would be worth reviewing COP’s performance in the previous quarter.
Highlights of COP’s Q1 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, COP’s earnings of $1.89 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.73, driven by lower costs and improved operational efficiency.
ConocoPhillips’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 1.03%. This is depicted in the graph below:
The upstream player beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 5.78%. This is depicted in the graph below.
ConocoPhillips Price and EPS Surprise
ConocoPhillips price-eps-surprise | ConocoPhillips Quote
COP’s Estimate Trend
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share of $2.96 has witnessed one upward and four downward revisions in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate implies an increase of 108.5% from the year-ago reported number.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $17.54 billion indicates a 19% improvement from the year-ago reported figure.
Factors to Consider for COP
ConocoPhillips is expected to have sustained a stable performance during the second quarter, driven by higher commodity prices. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the West Texas Intermediate spot price for April and May 2026 was $100.32 and $102.13 per barrel, respectively, before falling to $84.81 in June. These prices marked a significant increase from the $63.54, $62.17 and $68.17 per barrel reported in the corresponding period of 2025. The pricing environment is expected to have supported the company's upstream earnings.
However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East likely resulted in significant price volatility during the second quarter, adding uncertainty to ConocoPhillips' operating environment. In addition, the company remains unhedged on its oil and LNG production. While this strategy allows it to fully benefit from higher commodity prices, it also leaves earnings more exposed to downside price movements. Further, Qatar’s production shut-in may have affected its LNG operations in the region, potentially weighing on overall performance.
These factors are anticipated to have affected volume and pricing dynamics, potentially hampering COP’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
COP's Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for COP this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that's not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: COP has an Earnings ESP of -1.33%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks to Consider
Here are some other energy firms that you may want to consider, as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Cheniere Energy LNG currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.69% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Cheniere Energy is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on Aug. 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LNG’s earnings is pegged at $2.80 per share, implying a 61.6% decline from the prior-year reported figure.
Occidental Petroleum OXY currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.33% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Occidental Petroleum is scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 earnings on Aug. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OXY’s earnings is pegged at $1.96 per share, indicating a 402.6% increase from the prior-year reported figure.
Excelerate Energy EE currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.04% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Excelerate Energy is scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 earnings on Aug. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EE’s earnings is pegged at 35 cents per share, implying a 2.9% increase from the prior-year reported figure.
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ConocoPhillips (COP): Free Stock Analysis Report
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY): Free Stock Analysis Report
Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE): Free Stock Analysis Report
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).