Business Context and Reporting Period
Company: Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Plc (CCEP)
Filing Type: Form 6-K (Report of Foreign Private Issuer)
Reporting Period: Six months ended 27 June 2025
Overview: CCEP reported a solid first-half performance, reaffirming its full-year profit and cash guidance. The company operates across 31 markets in Europe and the Asia-Pacific (APS) region, serving nearly 600 million consumers. Key strategic themes include productivity improvements, technology/AI investment, and navigating a volatile macroeconomic environment.
Key Financial Metrics (H1 2025)
| Metric | As Reported (€M) | Comparable (€M) | Adjusted Comparable (€M) | Change vs H1 2024 (Adj. Comp.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,274 | 10,274 | 10,274 | +1.8% (Reported) / +2.5% (FXN) |
| Operating Profit | 1,364 | 1,390 | 1,390 | +6.4% (Reported) / +7.2% (FXN) |
| Profit After Tax | 937 | 951 | - | +15.5% (Reported) / +2.9% (Comp) |
| Diluted EPS | €1.99 | €2.02 | - | +15.0% (Reported) / +3.1% (Comp) |
| Comparable Free Cash Flow | 425 | - | - | - |
| Volume (M Unit Cases) | 1,932 | 1,932 | 1,932 | +4.1% (Reported) / +0.3% (Adj. Comp) |
| Revenue per Unit Case | €5.36 | €5.36 | €5.36 | +1.1% (Reported) / +3.8% (Adj. Comp) |
Debt & Liquidity: Net debt stood at €10,032 million as of 27 June 2025 (up from €9,672 million at year-end 2024). The company maintains a €1.8 billion undrawn committed credit facility. Credit ratings remain stable (Moody's: Baa1, Fitch: BBB+).
Material Changes vs. Prior Period
- Revenue Growth: Reported revenue increased 4.5% year-over-year. On an adjusted comparable FX-neutral basis, growth was 2.5%, driven by a 3.8% increase in revenue per unit case (pricing and mix) and a 0.3% increase in volume.
- Profitability: Reported operating profit surged 19.4% to €1,364 million, primarily due to lower business transformation costs compared to H1 2024. On an adjusted comparable basis, operating profit grew 7.2%.
- Volume Dynamics: Total volume grew 4.1% reported, but only 0.3% on an adjusted comparable basis.
- Europe: Volume declined 0.3% (adjusted comparable), impacted by the French sugar tax and the strategic de-listing of Capri Sun, though Q2 saw a return to growth due to better weather and Easter timing.
- APS: Volume grew 1.5% (adjusted comparable). Strong growth in Australia/Pacific and the Philippines was offset by a decline in Indonesia due to a weaker consumer backdrop and geopolitical factors.
- Cost Structure: Cost of sales per unit case increased 3.6% (adjusted comparable FX-neutral), reflecting higher concentrate costs linked to revenue per unit case, manufacturing inflation, and tax increases in France and Great Britain.
Guidance, Outlook, and Risks
Full-Year 2025 Guidance (Adjusted Comparable & FX-Neutral)
- Revenue: Growth of 3% to 4% (previously ~4%).
- Operating Profit: Growth of ~7%.
- Cost of Sales per UC: Comparable growth of ~2%.
- Comparable Free Cash Flow: At least €1.7 billion.
- CAPEX: ~5% of revenue.
- Dividend Payout Ratio: ~50% based on comparable EPS.
- Share Buyback: €1 billion program over 12 months from February 2025 (~€460 million completed as of July 30, 2025).
Management Commentary
CEO Damian Gammell highlighted strong execution, share gains ahead of the market, and value creation for customers. The company is investing in technology and AI to unlock future value. Despite global volatility, CCEP remains resilient with leading market positions.
Risks and Contingencies
- Geopolitical & Macro: Volatility in global trade, potential freight disruptions, and eroding consumer confidence, particularly in Indonesia and the Middle East region.
- Regulatory & Tax: Ongoing discussions on soft drink/plastic taxes and Deposit Return Systems (DRS). A recent Spanish Supreme Court ruling regarding VAT jurisdiction resulted in a €250 million receivable from Spanish authorities and a €280 million payable to Basque authorities, netting a €30 million impact on previously recognized positions.
- Commodity & FX: FX represents a full-year headwind of ~150 bps to revenue and ~200 bps to operating profit. Commodity inflation is expected to be broadly flat (hedged at ~95% for FY25).
Investor Verification Checklist
- Indonesia Performance: Verify the sustainability of volume declines in Indonesia and the impact of the weaker consumer backdrop on the APS segment.
- Capri Sun De-listing: Confirm the full annualization of the impact from the strategic de-listing of Capri Sun in Europe on future volume comparisons.
- Cost Inflation: Monitor the trajectory of cost of sales per unit case, specifically the pass-through of concentrate costs and the impact of tax increases in France and GB.
- FX Exposure: Assess the impact of currency fluctuations on the full-year guidance, given the stated headwinds.
- Share Buyback Execution: Track the progress of the €1 billion share buyback program and its impact on diluted EPS.
- Spanish VAT Ruling: Confirm the settlement timeline for the €250 million VAT receivable and €280 million payable resulting from the July 2025 Supreme Court ruling.