DOMINOS PIZZA INC quarterly report, Q3 FY2010

Business Context and Reporting Period

Company: Domino's Pizza, Inc.
Filing Type: Form 10-Q (Quarterly Report)
Period Ended: September 12, 2010 (Third Fiscal Quarter)
Business Overview: The Company operates as the number one pizza delivery company in the United States with a leading international presence. Operations include Company-owned stores (U.S. only), franchise stores (U.S. and international), and regional supply chain centers.

Key Financial Metrics

Amounts in thousands, except per share data and percentages.

Metric Q3 2010 Q3 2009 YTD 3Q 2010 YTD 3Q 2009
Total Revenues $347,388 $302,715 $1,090,923 $941,175
Income from Operations $48,224 $40,450 $160,314 $125,672
Net Income $16,600 $17,829 $63,744 $56,126
Diluted EPS $0.27 $0.31 $1.05 $0.97
Operating Margin % 13.9% 13.4% 14.7% 13.3%
Cash from Operations (YTD) $82,266 $54,812 $82,266 $54,812
Long-Term Debt $1,474,936 $1,522,463 $1,474,936 $1,522,463
Cash & Equivalents (Unrestricted) $39,195 $42,392 $39,195 $42,392

Material Changes vs. Prior Period

  • Revenue Growth: Total revenues increased 14.8% in Q3 2010 and 15.9% YTD compared to 2009. Growth was driven by higher domestic supply chain revenues (due to volume and commodity prices), increased same-store sales, and international store count growth.
  • Same-Store Sales: Domestic Company-owned same-store sales rose 11.8% in Q3 2010 (vs. -2.0% in 2009). Domestic franchise same-store sales increased 11.7% (vs. +0.3% in 2009). International same-store sales grew 7.0% (vs. +2.7% in 2009).
  • Net Income Variance: Q3 2010 net income decreased 6.9% primarily due to lower pre-tax gains on debt extinguishment ($0.9M in 2010 vs. $14.3M in 2009). YTD net income increased 13.6% driven by higher operating income and lower interest expense.
  • Debt Reduction: The Company repurchased and retired $100.4 million in principal amount of debt during the first three quarters of 2010, resulting in a reduction of long-term debt balances and lower interest expense.
  • Commodity Costs: Cheese prices averaged $1.53/lb in Q3 2010, up from $1.19/lb in Q3 2009, impacting cost of sales and operating margins.

Guidance, Outlook, and Risks

  • Outlook: Management expects positive year-over-year sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2010, citing continued momentum from the improved pizza recipe, effective advertising, and operational excellence.
  • Liquidity: The Company maintains unrestricted cash of $39.2 million and restricted cash of $77.5 million. Management believes cash flows from operations and current cash balances are sufficient to fund operations, capital expenditures, and debt service for the foreseeable future.
  • Debt Structure: Securitized debt requires interest-only payments until April 2012. The Company has met the thresholds to extend this interest-only period for two additional one-year periods (through April 2013).
  • Risks: Key risks include high levels of indebtedness, volatility in commodity prices (specifically cheese), changes in consumer spending patterns, and the effectiveness of marketing and operational initiatives.
  • Unusual Items: Q3 2010 results included a $0.9 million gain on debt extinguishment. YTD 2010 included an $8.6 million gain on debt extinguishment. Additionally, a $2.9 million reduction in unrecognized tax benefits in Q2 2010 lowered the effective tax rate for the YTD period.

Investor Verification Checklist

  • Debt Extinguishment Gains: Verify the sustainability of net income given the significant year-over-year decline in one-time gains from debt repurchases ($14.3M in Q3 2009 vs. $0.9M in Q3 2010).
  • Commodity Price Exposure: Assess the impact of rising cheese and meat prices on future operating margins, particularly in the supply chain segment.
  • Insurance Reserves: Review the increase in insurance costs (up 1.9 percentage points of store revenue in Q3) due to adverse development of historical non-owned auto liability and workers' compensation claims.
  • Debt Covenants: Confirm the Company's ability to maintain the financial thresholds required to extend the interest-only period on securitized debt beyond April 2012.
  • Store Count Trends: Note the decrease in domestic Company-owned stores (455 in 2010 vs. 481 in 2009) and verify the strategy regarding the mix of owned vs. franchised locations.