NRG to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock This Season?

NRG Energy NRG is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 24, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is currently pegged at $1.18 per share on revenues of $7.32 billion.

Fourth-quarter earnings estimates have moved down 5.60% over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a decline of 22.37% from the year-ago number. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues indicates a year-over-year increase of 7.36%.

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NRG Stock’s Earnings Surprise History

NRG Energy’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise of 34.08%.

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What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for NRG Energy this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

NRG’s Earnings ESP: NRG Energy has an Earnings ESP of -10.64%.

Zacks Rank of NRG: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

A company from the same industry with the right combination of the two factors for an earnings surprise this season is The AES Corporation AES. It is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 26, 2026. AES currently has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +0.54%.

A couple of other stocks from the same industry that reported positive earnings surprise this season are NextEra Energy NEE and WEC Energy Group WEC, among others. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share for NEE and WEC indicates year-over-year growth of 7.82% and 6.26%, respectively.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped NRG Stock’s Q4 Earnings

NRG serves a diverse customer base, with no single customer contributing more than 10% of total revenues. Supported by its high-quality services, the company has achieved strong customer retention, providing stable revenue streams. These are likely to have impacted positively on fourth-quarter earnings.

NRG Energy’s fourth-quarter earnings are likely to have benefited from the expanding data center power agreements. Synergies from acquired assets are also expected to have boosted the fourth-quarter bottom line.

The company’s strong free cash flow generation enables it to continue repurchasing shares, reducing the number of shares outstanding and positively contributing to overall earnings.

NRG Stock’s Price Performance

NRG’s shares have gained 23.7% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Utility – Electric Power industry’s rise of 15.7%.

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NRG Stock Returns Better Than Its Industry

NRG Energy’s trailing 12-month return on equity (“ROE”) is 103.57%, ahead of the industry average of 10.7%. ROE is a financial ratio that measures how well a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profits. The company's current ROE indicates that it is using shareholders’ funds more efficiently than peers.

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NRG Energy’s Shares Trading at a Premium

The company is currently valued at a premium compared with its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis. NRG Energy is trading at 17.81X compared with its industry’s 17.01X.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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