Here's Why Investors Should Stay Neutral on Lincoln National for Now

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Here's Why Investors Should Stay Neutral on Lincoln National for Now

Lincoln National Corporation LNC is a diversified life insurance and investment management company with a market capitalization of $6.6 billion. It provides a wide range of wealth accumulation and protection, group protection, and retirement solutions through four segments — Annuities, Life Insurance, Group Protection and Retirement Plan Services.

The stock has declined 7.9% over the past year, underperforming the industry’s average gain of 3.2%. However, the company is positioning itself for growth by focusing on disciplined, profitable business, particularly in the Life Insurance segment, supported by improved pricing, product design and risk management.

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Backed by solid prospects, investors may adopt a wait-and-see approach toward this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock.

Estimates for LNC Stock

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LNC’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $8.00 per share. In the past 30 days, the estimate has witnessed one upward revision against two in the opposite direction. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $19.9 billion for 2026. The company beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 14.3%.

Lincoln National Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Lincoln National Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Lincoln National Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Lincoln National Corporation Quote

LNC’s Growth Drivers

Lincoln National generates revenues from insurance premiums, fee income, and net investment income, reflecting a diversified earnings mix. The company manages a large invested asset base, which serves as one of the key drivers of investment income. LNC is actively adjusting its investment strategy, product design, and crediting rates in response to the interest rate environment to support profitability and sustainable earnings growth.

The Annuities segment remains a major contributor, supported by spread-based products and disciplined pricing and risk management. The Life Insurance segment is being repositioned from loss-incurring operations to higher-return business through pricing actions, enhanced underwriting and product redesign.

Group Protection provides relatively stable earnings through consistent premium income and ongoing pricing and claims management. The company is also focusing on operational efficiency and long-term capability building. Investments in technology, data, and process improvements are aimed at enhancing productivity, distribution effectiveness and customer experience. Lincoln is also focusing on profitable growth over volume expansion, prioritizing higher-return business, disciplined risk management, and efficient capital allocation. LNC’s return on invested capital of 0.7% is higher than the industry average of 0.64%.

The company reported cash and invested cash of approximately $9.5 billion at 2025-end, reflecting a significant increase from the prior-year level, while maintaining total debt of about $6.3 billion. Its dividend yield of 5.3% remains higher than the industry average of 3.5%.

Key Concern

Lincoln National has relatively higher financial leverage compared to the industry, with a total debt-to-capital ratio of around 36.5%, significantly above the industry average of 16.3%. This elevated leverage may increase financial risk, particularly amid volatile market conditions.

LNC is currently trading at 4.15X forward P/E, below its five-year median of 4.63X and the industry average of 8.09X, reflecting lingering investor skepticism.  

Key Picks

Some better-ranked stocks in the broader finance space are Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. HRTG, The Allstate Corporation ALL and BankUnited, Inc. BKU, each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Heritage Insurance’s 2026 earnings of $4.70 per share has witnessed two upward revisions in the past 60 days against no movement in the opposite direction. Heritage Insurance beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 101.7%. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pegged at $895.3 million, calling for 5.7% year-over-year growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Allstate’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $25.40 per share, which has witnessed five upward revisions in the past 30 days, with no movement in the opposite direction. ALL beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 54.3%. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pinned at $72.3 billion, implying 7.3% year-over-year growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BankUnited’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $4.01 per share, indicating a 12.3% year-over-year rise. BKU beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 11.1%. The consensus estimate for 2026 top line is pinned at $1.2 billion, calling for 8% year-over-year growth.

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Lincoln National Corporation (LNC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
The Allstate Corporation (ALL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
BankUnited, Inc. (BKU): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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