United Airlines Holdings, Inc. UAL is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 21, after market close.
United Airlines has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 7.73%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for United Airlines this earnings season.
Factors Likely to Have Influenced UAL’s Q1 Performance
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UAL’s first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised downward by 18.08% in the past 60 days to $1.08 per share. However, the consensus mark implies a 18.68% upside from the year-ago actual. The consensus estimate lies within the company-provided guided range of $1.00-$1.50.
We expect high fuel costs to have dented UAL’s bottom-line performance in the March quarter. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has resulted in a sharp jump in oil prices. In the month of March alone, oil prices gained in excess of 50%. This has been naturally hurting the bottom line of airlines. This is because fuel expenses represent a key input cost for airlines.
With most U.S. carriers having abandoned fuel hedging strategies, they are fully exposed to price spikes in the event of oil supply disruption. UAL also announced in late March that it is trimming more unprofitable routes over the next two quarters as it braces for a prolonged surge in jet fuel prices due to the Iran war. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average fuel cost per gallon is pegged at $2.68, which is higher than the $2.53 reported in the first quarter of 2025.
High labor costs are also likely to have hurt the bottom line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-fuel unit cost or cost per available seat mile (CASM: adjusted) is pegged at 13.60 cents compared with 13.17 cents reported in the first quarter of 2025.
While rising fuel and labor costs remain key challenges, other headwinds such as geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures and persistent inflation continue to weigh on UAL’s operations.
Despite the sharp rise in jet fuel prices, solid bookings are likely to have aided UAL’s top-line performance in the March quarter. The increasing ticket prices are likely to have covered the double-digit increase in airlines’ key input costs. Given this encouraging backdrop, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for UAL’s first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $14.32 billion, indicating 8.36% growth year over year.
What Our Model Says About UAL
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for United Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
United Airlines has an Earnings ESP of -1.08% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
United Airlines Holdings Inc Price and EPS Surprise
United Airlines Holdings Inc price-eps-surprise | United Airlines Holdings Inc Quote
Highlights of UAL’s Q4 Earnings
UAL's fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (excluding 9 cents from non-recurring items) of $3.10 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.98 but declined 4.9% on a year-over-year basis. The reported figure lies within the guided range of $3.00-$3.50.
Operating revenues of $15.4 billion outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate marginally by 0.1% and increased 4.8% year over year. Passenger revenues (which accounted for 90.4% of the top line) increased 4.9% year over year to $13.9 billion. UAL flights transported 45,679 passengers in the fourth quarter, up 3% year over year.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Ryder System, Inc. (R) has an Earnings ESP of +0.66% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Ryder is set to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 23. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ryder’s first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised 17.33% downward over the past 60 days. Ryder’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed the mark in the remaining one, the average beat being 1.91%.
Union Pacific (UNP) has an Earnings ESP of +2.18% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. UNP is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 23.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has remained unchanged over the past 60 days. UNP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters (missing the mark on the other two occasions). The average beat is 1.34%.
5 Stocks Set to Double
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Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.
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United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL): Free Stock Analysis Report
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP): Free Stock Analysis Report
Ryder System, Inc. (R): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).