ConocoPhillips COP is set to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, before the opening bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.61 per share, implying a 23% decline from the year-ago reported number. It has witnessed one upward estimate revision in the past seven days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $14.5 billion, suggesting a 15.4% decline from the year-ago figure.
COP beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing estimates once, delivering an average surprise of 3.8%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Q1 Earnings Whispers for COP
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for COP this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is just the case here.
The upstream major has an Earnings ESP of +7.75% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors to Note Ahead of COP’s Q1 Results
To have an idea of how oil prices behaved in the March quarter, let's analyze the commodity prices from the data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”). The average Cushing, OK, WTI spot prices for January, February and March of this year were $60.04 per barrel, $64.51 per barrel and $91.38 per barrel, respectively, per EIA data. The crude pricing environment was quite favorable for the exploration and production activities of COP, especially in the last month of the quarter. This is likely to have aided the company’s production. However, the upstream giant expects lower year-over-year volumes in the March quarter of this year.
COP’s Price Performance & Valuation
COP stock has jumped 32.4% over the past year, outperforming the industry’s 25.3% growth. EOG Resources EOG, another upstream major, has surged 17.9% over the same time frame, while Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM jumped 36.7%.
One-Year Price Chart
Although COP's prices outperformed the industry, the company appears relatively undervalued. The upstream giant’s current trailing 12-month enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 6.45, reflecting that it is trading at a discount compared with the industry average of 11.51. Both EOG and XOM are also valued higher at 3.65x and 9.45x, respectively.
Investment Thesis of COP
The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading at more than $95 per barrel, according to data from oilprice.com, owing to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. With COP generating a significant proportion of revenues from crude oil, the high price of the commodity is extremely favorable for the leading oil and gas exploration and production company, much like other energy giants such as XOM and EOG.
The upstream energy giant also has low-cost drilling opportunities across Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken that could be successfully developed over two decades. Thus, the outlook for ConocoPhillips’ upstream operations looks highly profitable. Also, the company has a low exposure to debt capital and hence can rely on its balance sheet to sail through all the business cycles efficiently.
Last Word
Given the backdrop, it might be wise for investors to bet on the undervalued stock right away.
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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Free Stock Analysis Report
ConocoPhillips (COP): Free Stock Analysis Report
EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).