Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, before the opening bell.
RCL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing three out of four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 3.7%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of RCL
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $3.20, indicating a rise of 18.1% from $2.71 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $4.45 billion. The metric implies a rise of 11.2% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let’s take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape RCL’s Q1 Results
Royal Caribbean’s top-line performance in first-quarter 2026 is likely to have been supported by robust demand trends and strong booking momentum. Management highlighted a record start to the year, with the best booking weeks in the company’s history and a significant portion of inventory already booked at higher rates. This indicates healthy pricing power alongside solid volume growth. Demand strength appears broad-based, with direct-to-consumer channels performing well and travel partners also contributing higher bookings at improved pricing, reflecting sustained consumer appetite for cruise vacations.
Another major revenue driver is the continued strength of premium offerings and new ships, which have been attracting high-quality demand and enabling yield expansion. Newly introduced vessels and innovative experiences have been exceeding expectations, helping the company command better pricing. Additionally, the appeal of cruise vacations, driven by value, convenience and bundled experiences, continues to resonate with consumers, many of whom are prioritizing leisure travel and planning to increase spending. Expansion of exclusive destinations and enhanced onboard offerings further boost onboard spending and overall revenue generation.
Our model estimates first-quarter passenger ticket revenues to rise 9.9% year over year to $3.02 billion. We expect onboard and other revenues to rise 12% year over year to $1.4 billion.
On the profitability front, disciplined cost management and operational efficiencies are likely to have supported margins in the first quarter. The company has been leveraging scale benefits from capacity growth while using technology, including AI, to optimize operations such as supply chain, pricing and energy usage. At the same time, a favorable revenue mix, driven by higher yields, strong onboard spending and contributions from joint ventures, is likely to have enhanced earnings. This combination of revenue growth and controlled cost inflation positions the company for margin expansion and stronger bottom-line performance.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Quote
What Our Model Says About RCL Stock
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Royal Caribbean this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Royal Caribbean’s Earnings ESP: RCL has an Earnings ESP of +1.41%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
RCL’s Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Hasbro HAS has an Earnings ESP of +7.73% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Hasbro’s earnings are expected to increase 2.9%. Hasbro’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 43.9%.
Hilton Worldwide, Inc. HLT currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Hilton Worldwide’s earnings are expected to increase 13.4%. Hilton Worldwide reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 5.7%.
Marriott International, Inc. MAR currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Marriott International’s earnings are expected to increase 11.6%. Marriott International reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 0.7%.
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Marriott International, Inc. (MAR): Free Stock Analysis Report
Hasbro, Inc. (HAS): Free Stock Analysis Report
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL): Free Stock Analysis Report
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).