Nvidia (NVDA) posted another blockbuster earnings report, firing up enthusiasm across the entire AI sector. And OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, moved closer to what could be the most anticipated tech initial public offering in years. SoftBank (SFTBY) sits at the center of both stories.
The Japanese investment giant has emerged as OpenAI's single largest backer, a position that should pay off in a very visible way. SoftBank Group looks like one of the most compelling ways to ride the artificial intelligence wave in 2026. Let’s see why.
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www.barchart.com Why SoftBank Stock Is Surging Right Now
In the last five trading sessions, SoftBank stock has gained close to 25% on the Japanese stock exchange. The rally is being driven by two of SoftBank's largest holdings moving sharply higher simultaneously.
The first is Arm (ARM), the chip design company in which SoftBank holds a controlling stake. Arm shares rose more than 16% on Thursday, following a 15% gain the day before. Arm's technology powers AI servers and data centers around the world, and Nvidia's results confirmed that spending in that area is not slowing down.
The second driver is OpenAI, which remains a private company but is widely expected to file for an IPO in the coming weeks. UBP senior equity advisor Vey Sern Ling told CNBC that SoftBank's stock price is essentially mirroring its two big holdings, as OpenAI's public listing draws closer.
That said, Ling also noted a real caveat: Holding companies like SoftBank often trade at a discount to the underlying value of their assets, because shareholders rarely capture the full benefit.
That is a risk worth understanding. But it does not change the core investment thesis here.
SoftBank's OpenAI Bet Is Paying Off
At its fiscal year earnings call in May 2026, SoftBank CFO Yoshimitsu Goto confirmed that the company had invested $32.4 billion in OpenAI in the fiscal year ended March 31. A further $30 billion in follow-on investment had been committed, with $10 billion already funded in April. By October, total investment in OpenAI will reach $64.6 billion, giving SoftBank roughly 13% ownership.
OpenAI's valuation stood at $150 billion when SoftBank first invested in September 2024. By February 2026, it had reached $730 billion. That is nearly a five-times increase in roughly two and a half years.
SoftBank booked approximately $45.7 billion in cumulative investment gains in fiscal 2025, helping the company post net income of $31.4 billion, which Goto described as the highest profit ever recorded by a Japanese corporation.
However, according to a Wall Street Journal report, OpenAI fell short of its revenue and user growth estimates. Investors are also concerned about OpenAI’s data center spending plans, given rising competition from Anthropic and Google’s Gemini.
OpenAI has inked computing deals worth a staggering $300 billion with Oracle (ORCL). Recently, it entered into a strategic collaboration with Amazon (AMZN) and expanded an existing spending agreement by $100 billion.
www.barchart.com What Investors Should Watch
Out of the 12 analysts covering SoftBank stock, eight recommend “Strong Buy,” three recommend “Hold,” and one recommends “Strong Sell.” The average SoftBank stock price target is $19.29, marginally below the current price.
SoftBank stock is not a risk-free bet. The holding company discount is real, and SoftBank carries meaningful debt, while its net asset value fluctuates significantly with market swings in Arm and OpenAI.
But with a net asset value of around $300 billion as of mid-May 2026, a loan-to-value ratio of roughly 15%, and positions in two of the most important artificial intelligence companies on the planet, SoftBank offers something genuinely rare: direct exposure to the AI buildout at a scale very few investors can access on their own.
On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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