Why Is Ford Motor (F) Up 37.8% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Ford Motor Company (F). Shares have added about 37.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ford Motor due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Ford Beats Q1 Earnings Estimates, Raises Full-Year EBIT Guidance

Ford reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of 66 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 20 cents by 232.3%. The bottom line increased from 14 cents in the prior-year quarter.

F’s total automotive revenues rose 6.4% year over year to $39.82 billion, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $39.34 billion by 1.21%. The company’s consolidated first-quarter revenues came in at $43.3 billion, up 6.4% year over year.

Ford Pro paid software subscriptions climbed 30% year over year to 879,000, highlighting continued momentum in recurring revenue streams.

F Posts Strong Profit Rebound on Key Tailwinds

F generated adjusted EBIT of $3.5 billion and an adjusted EBIT margin of 8.1% in the quarter, reflecting a sharp improvement from the year-ago period driven by selling higher-value vehicles, better pricing and growth in both software and service-related businesses.

A major contributor was a $1.3 billion one-time IEEPA tariff benefit related to payments made between March 2025 and February 2026.

Ford Blue Delivers Higher Revenue and Margin Expansion

Ford Blue generated $23.9 billion in revenues in the first quarter, up 14% from last year. Better product mix and higher pricing helped offset a slight drop in wholesales. Sales volumes fell 1% to 584,000 units, but strong demand for key models and a better mix supported overall performance.

EBIT jumped to $1.94 billion from $96 million a year ago, lifting the margin to 8.1%. The improvement was driven by favorable market conditions, growth in software and service-related businesses and lower compliance costs. Results also got a boost from about $0.7 billion in IEEPA tariff gains. However, aluminum supply constraints linked to Novelis, which mainly affected Super Duty availability, acted as a headwind.

F’s Pro Segment Holds Double-Digit Margin Despite Disruptions

Ford Pro segment reported revenues of $14.7 billion, down 3% from last year, as wholesales fell 10% to 316,000 units. The decline was mainly due to production disruptions related to Novelis.

Despite the disruptions, Ford Pro still delivered strong results. EBIT rose to $1.69 billion, up $376 million from last year, and the margin improved to 11.4% from 8.6%.

This was mainly driven by better cost control, including about $0.5 billion from a one-time IEEPA tariff benefit, along with gains from software and service-related businesses, currency movements, and lower compliance costs. However, some of these gains were partly offset by weaker market conditions and higher commodity costs.

Ford Model e Loss Narrows as Mix Shifts and Investments Continue

Ford Model e generated $1.2 billion in revenues, roughly unchanged from last year, while wholesales increased 10% to 34,000 units. Higher sales in Europe supported volumes, but this was partly offset by the discontinuation of the F-150 Lightning.

The segment reported an EBIT loss of $777 million, narrower than the $849 million loss a year ago. The EBIT margin improved to negative 63.1% from negative 68.4%.

The results reflected ongoing efforts to make first-generation EVs more profitable, while continuing to invest in next-generation products, including work on the new UEV platform and the ramp-up of Ford Energy.

F’s Credit Arm Benefits From Financing Margin Improvement

Ford Credit reported revenues of $3.43 billion for the quarter. Auction values rose 1% due to strong demand and limited supply, while the U.S. retail loss-to-receivables ratio increased from the previous quarter, mainly due to seasonal factors.

The segment reported earnings before taxes of $783 million, up $203 million from the prior-year quarter. The growth was supported by strong portfolio performance, higher financing margins and favorable derivative valuations.

Ford Raises 2026 EBIT Outlook and Maintains Capital Priorities

Ford reported a negative adjusted free cash flow of $1.9 billion for the quarter. It had cash and cash equivalents of $17.65 billion as of March 31, 2026. Long-term debt, excluding Ford Credit, totaled $16.33 billion as of March 31, 2026.

Ford raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5-$10.5 billion, up from $8-$10 billion. It reiterated its adjusted free cash flow outlook at $5 -$6 billion. Capital spending is expected to be in the band of $9.5-$10.5 billion, unchanged from the previous estimated range.

For the Ford Pro segment, it expects EBIT in the range of $6.5-$7.5 billion, and for Ford Blue, it expects EBIT in the range of $4.5-$5 billion, up from the previous estimated range of $4-$4.5 billion. It expects Model e losses of $4-$4.5 billion, and Ford Credit EBT of about $2.5 billion. At quarter-end, Ford had $43.1 billion in liquidity, underscoring balance-sheet flexibility as the company enters an intensive product and services rollout cycle.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -8.39% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Ford Motor has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Ford Motor has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Ford Motor is part of the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry. Over the past month, General Motors (GM), a stock from the same industry, has gained 9.7%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2026 more than a month ago.

General Motors reported revenues of $43.62 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -0.9%. EPS of $3.70 for the same period compares with $2.78 a year ago.

For the current quarter, General Motors is expected to post earnings of $3.12 per share, indicating a change of +23.3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.8% over the last 30 days.

General Motors has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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