Amgen AMGN is one of the several drug makers racing to develop an innovative weight-loss drug and take a share of the booming weight loss drug market. The global obesity drug market is projected to grow dramatically, reaching nearly $95 billion by 2030 and potentially $125 billion by 2035, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.
Amgen is developing MariTide, a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor, as a single dose in a convenient autoinjector device with a monthly and maybe less frequent dosing. This key feature differentiates it from Eli Lilly’s LLY and Novo Nordisk’s NVO popular GLP-1-based obesity drugs, Zepbound (tirzepatide) and Wegovy (semaglutide), respectively, which are weekly injections. A monthly therapy like MariTide may help reduce treatment burden for patients and improve persistence on treatment over time.
Amgen is evaluating MariTide in type II diabetes, obesity and obesity-related conditions as part of its comprehensive MARITIME phase III program. Amgen has nine global phase III studies underway with MariTide in obesity and other obesity-related conditions like obstructive sleep apnea, cardiovascular disease and heart failure. Three phase III studies of MariTide in type II diabetes will be initiated in 2026.
In clinical studies, it has shown predictable and sustained weight loss and a clinically meaningful impact on cardiometabolic parameters.
In phase II studies, MariTide resulted in up to approximately 20% average weight loss over 52 weeks without reaching a weight loss plateau in people who were obese or overweight but without type II diabetes. In patients with type II diabetes who were obese or overweight, the weight loss reduction was approximately 17% at 52 weeks.
An interesting study is a new phase III switch study that will assess patients transitioning from weekly tirzepatide or semaglutide therapy to MariTide administered once every eight weeks or once every 12 weeks. In other words, the study will evaluate switching from Zepbound and Wegovy injections given 52 times a year to a medicine that can be injected 4 or 6 times a year.
MariTide is by far Amgen's most important obesity asset. However, Amgen’s obesity pipeline also includes earlier-stage oral and injectable candidates like AMG 513 and AMG 786.
Can AMGN Take Share from LLY and NVO in the Obesity Space?
MariTide is a closely watched drug in the obesity market. However, with MariTide, Amgen is entering a market that is heavily dominated by Lilly and Novo Nordisk. LLY and NVO already have a massive first-mover advantage in the obesity space and enjoy strong brand recognition.
Moreover, to maintain their prowess in the lucrative obesity market, both Novo Nordisk and Lilly are developing several next-generation, more powerful and more convenient GLP-1–based treatments, including oral options and multi-acting candidates.
Lilly's next-generation candidate, retatrutide, has demonstrated approximately 28% weight loss in late-stage studies, significantly above MariTide's approximately 20%.
This will make it difficult for Amgen to capture rapid market share on a weight-loss efficacy basis, even with a differentiated product like MariTide. However, from another perspective, the obesity market is huge and can support multiple players, and even a modest market share could translate into billions of dollars in annual revenues. MariTide’s less frequent dosing is its biggest competitive advantage, and if successfully developed and launched, MariTide could become the preferred option for patients who value convenience and durable weight maintenance.
Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space
While Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate this space, smaller biotechs like Structure Therapeutics and Viking Therapeutics are also developing oral GLP-1 drugs for treating obesity.
Others, such as Roche, Merck, AbbVie, and, more recently, Pfizer PFE, have strengthened their obesity pipelines through licensing deals and acquisitions involving smaller biotechs. Pfizer has strengthened its obesity presence with last year’s licensing of YP05002 from YaoPharma and the acquisition of Metsera. AbbVie entered the obesity field by licensing GUB014295 from Gubra. Roche strengthened its obesity presence through the acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics and its obesity assets, such as CT-388, as well as the exclusive collaboration with Zealand Pharma.
AMGN’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Amgen’s stock has risen 5.3% so far this year compared with an increase of 4.0% for the industry.
From a valuation standpoint, Amgen is reasonably priced. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 15.05 forward earnings, which is lower than 17.59 for the industry. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 13.81.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has declined from $22.29 per share to $22.26 per share for 2026 over the past 60 days. For 2027, the consensus mark for earnings has risen from $23.43 to $23.70 per share over the same timeframe.
Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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