The race to connect ordinary smartphones directly to satellites is moving from technological possibility to commercial reality. Space companies have spent years proving their equipment works. Now comes the harder part: Building networks that can serve millions of customers and eventually turn a profit.
Governments and wireless carriers are joining the effort, bringing funding, customers, and competition. For investors, the next phase could determine which companies become profitable businesses and which struggle under the cost of reaching orbit.
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That makes Nov. 17 an important date for AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shareholders, particularly after ASTS stock's roughly 55% decline this year.
www.barchart.com Why Nov. 17 Matters
AST SpaceMobile will participate in Deutsche Bank's Global Space and Defense Tech Summit in New York City on Nov. 17 and Nov. 18. The conference includes a Nov. 17 discussion focused on direct-to-device satellite connectivity, the technology at the heart of AST SpaceMobile's business.
The timing follows the company's Nov. 9 earnings announcement. Third-quarter revenue reached $42.3 million, up 187% from $14.7 million a year earlier. Management reaffirmed its 2026 revenue forecast of $150 million to $200 million and expects to begin intermittent nationwide satellite service in key markets before year-end.
Those are encouraging developments for a company whose shares have lost more than half their value in 2026. But the conference also follows another announcement that could reshape AST SpaceMobile's international ambitions.
Japan's $1 Billion Satellite Opportunity
On Nov. 9, AST SpaceMobile and Tokyo-based Rakuten Group (RKUNY) announced an agreement to establish Rakuten AST, a joint venture developing a direct-to-device satellite communications network in Japan.
The venture is expected to receive up to 148 billion yen, or approximately $1 billion, in Japanese government support through the J-LEO program over three years. Rakuten will own 51%, while AST SpaceMobile will hold 49% and supply the satellites. The partners aim to begin domestic operations by March 2029. Japan wants a network that maintains communications during natural disasters and reaches areas beyond traditional cellular coverage.
For AST, the venture offers a path toward turning its relationships with more than 60 mobile network operators — representing over 3 billion subscribers — into commercial revenue. But there's a financial catch.
According to AST SpaceMobile's latest U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing, the company expects to invest another $1.4 billion over three years beyond the anticipated Japanese government grant. That investment comes as AST expands a satellite network that already requires billions of dollars in capital.
The company ended September with approximately $3.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash. It has agreements covering more than 100 BlueBird satellites expected to be deployed cumulatively during 2027 and 2028.
Meanwhile, competition from SpaceX (SPCX) and other satellite operators is intensifying. The opportunity is enormous, but so is the execution challenge.
Is AST SpaceMobile Stock Finally a Buy?
AST SpaceMobile stock has fallen roughly 55% year-to-date (YTD), yet Barchart reports a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating among 15 analysts covering the company. Six analysts recommend a "Strong Buy," eight have a “Hold” rating, and one analyst recommends a "Strong Sell."
That division reflects the central question facing investors: Has the selloff created an opportunity, or does it reflect growing concern about launch delays, capital requirements, and competition?
Deutsche Bank recently upgraded AST SpaceMobile to “Buy,” maintaining a $93 price target. The bank argued that the market was undervaluing the company's spectrum assets and commercial opportunity. Conversely, Piper Sandler downgraded ASTS stock to “Neutral,” cutting its price target from $98 to $54 over concerns about launch timing and competition.
The difference isn't whether satellite connectivity has a future. It's how much investors should pay today for revenue that may take years to materialize. That's why the Nov. 17 conference matters.
www.barchart.com Investors should listen for three developments: Confirmation that initial commercial service remains on schedule, evidence that satellite production and launches can support planned coverage expansion, and greater clarity about how the Rakuten venture will affect capital spending. Those updates could help determine whether AST SpaceMobile's steep stock-price decline represents an opportunity or a warning.
The Bottom Line
AST SpaceMobile's selloff makes ASTS stock worth watching, but a 55% YTD decline doesn't automatically make it cheap.
For existing shareholders, holding through the conference makes sense if the original investment thesis remains intact. The company has growing revenue, international partnerships, and financing to pursue its satellite ambitions.
For prospective buyers, I'd wait for management to demonstrate that commercial service and satellite deployment remain on schedule without another major increase in expected capital spending. A credible update on those fronts would provide a stronger reason to buy than the stock's decline alone.
In short, Nov. 17 could help investors decide whether AST SpaceMobile is approaching a turning point — or whether patience remains the better investment.
On the date of publication, Rich Duprey did not directly have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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