The Procter & Gamble Company PG, also known as P&G, is set to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on July 29, before the opening bell. The company is expected to have witnessed year-over-year sales growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $21.4 billion, indicating a 2.3% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for PG’s earnings is pegged at $1.41 per share, indicating a decline of 4.7% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The consensus mark for earnings has moved down by a penny in the past seven days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 revenues is pegged at $87.1 billion, indicating a 3.3% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for PG’s earnings is pegged at $$6.88 per share, indicating a rise of 0.7% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The consensus mark for earnings has moved down 0.3% in the past 30 days.
PG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.7%, on average. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 1.9% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026.
PG’s Q4 Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Procter & Gamble this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Procter & Gamble currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.23% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Key Trends to Watch Ahead of PG's Q4 Earnings
Procter & Gamble’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results are expected to reflect the mounting pressures from elevated commodity costs, rising tariffs and higher financing expenses, which are expected to have weighed on its margin performance. The gross margin has been contracting despite productivity gains, while tariff headwinds and higher interest and taxes threaten earnings growth.
On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management acknowledged ongoing pressure from raw materials, packaging, transportation and other supply-chain-related expenses, which have been weighing on the cost of goods sold and limited margin expansion. Management maintained its fiscal 2026 outlook, but earnings are expected to trend toward the lower end of 1-6% growth, as cost headwinds persist and investments step up.
PG projects all-in sales growth of 1-5% for fiscal 2026, including an estimated one-percentage-point tailwind from foreign exchange, acquisitions and divestitures. Organic sales growth is expected to be in line with or rise 4%.
We expect the core cost of products sold to increase 2.6% year over year in fourth-quarter fiscal 2026. Our model predicts the core gross margin to contract 20 bps year over year to 48.9%.
Management also highlighted that trade-related costs are creating incremental pressure on sourcing, manufacturing and cross-border supply chains. Given PG’s global footprint, tariffs can disrupt cost structures across multiple categories and geographies, limiting the company’s ability to fully offset impacts through productivity alone. While selective pricing actions and supply-chain adjustments provide partial mitigation, tariffs remain largely outside management’s control and can compress margins if sustained.
Procter & Gamble Company (The) Price and EPS Surprise
Procter & Gamble Company (The) price-eps-surprise | Procter & Gamble Company (The) Quote
However, PG’s resilient performance underscores the power of its brand portfolio and disciplined operating strategy. Despite a mixed consumer backdrop, the company continues to generate steady organic sales, supported by pricing strength and broad-based category growth. Procter & Gamble continues to leverage its strong portfolio of daily-use products, wherein performance directly drives consumer brand choice, to deliver steady organic growth.
Our model predicts year-over-year organic sales growth of 0.4% for PG in the fourth quarter and 1.3% for fiscal 2026. Our model estimates organic sales growth of 2% for Beauty and 1% for the Fabric & Home Care segment, with flat organic sales for the Health Care segment. Organic sales for the Fabric & Home Care, and the Grooming segments are expected to decline 1% each in the fiscal fourth quarter.
The company’s integrated strategy, built on innovation, market expansion and productivity, has enabled it to adapt to shifting consumer dynamics and maintain competitiveness.
Innovation execution is a key swing factor. The company is rolling out major product upgrades and new formats across core franchises, with management repeatedly emphasizing that sustainable growth will come from superior performance rather than price-led tactics. PG’s focus on core categories and innovation continues to fuel performance, likely aiding organic sales in the fiscal third quarter.
Procter & Gamble’s Price Performance & Valuation
PG shares have gained 4% in the year-to-date period compared with the industry’s return of 2.6%. However, the stock has underperformed the Zacks Consumer Staples sector and the S&P 500’s growth of 8.4% and 9.5%, respectively.
PG’s YTD Performance
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From the valuation standpoint, Procter & Gamble is trading at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 21.1X, exceeding the industry’s average of 18.64X but below the S&P 500’s average of 20.85X. PG’s valuation appears pricey relative to the industry.
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Given the premium valuation, investors may face significant risks if the company's future performance does not meet expectations. The consumer goods market is becoming increasingly competitive, and Procter & Gamble’s innovation and market expansion may not suffice to drive significant growth. Macroeconomic challenges and heightened competition may impede the company's ability to sustain its current growth trajectory.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Fomento Economico Mexicano FMX currently has an Earnings ESP of +37.42% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. The company is likely to register growth in the top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 numbers. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $12.9 billion, which indicates a rise of 19.3% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FMX’s quarterly earnings per share of 82 cents implies growth of 95.2% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The consensus mark has moved down 10.9% in the past 30 days. FMX has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 17%, on average.
Newell Brands Inc. NWL currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.36% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is likely to register growth in the top line when it reports second-quarter 2026 numbers. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.97 billion, which indicates growth of 1.7% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Newell Brands’ quarterly earnings per share of 19 cents implies a decline of 20.8% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The consensus mark has been unchanged in the past 30 days. NWL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.7%, on average.
Church & Dwight Co. Inc. CHD currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.65% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register declines in the top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CHD’s quarterly EPS is pegged at 89 cents, down 5.3% from the year-ago period. The consensus mark has been unchanged in the past 30 days.
The consensus estimate for CHD’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.5 billion, which implies a decline of 0.2% from the prior-year quarter. Church & Dwight has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.5%, on average.
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Procter & Gamble Company (The) (PG): Free Stock Analysis Report
Newell Brands Inc. (NWL): Free Stock Analysis Report
Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. (FMX): Free Stock Analysis Report
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).