International Paper Company IP is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 30, 2026, before the opening bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IP’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $6.17 billion, indicating an 8.8% decline from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for International Paper’s earnings has moved down from a loss of two cents expected 60 days ago to the current expectation of a loss of three cents per share. The company had reported earnings of 20 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
IP’s Earnings Surprise History
International Paper’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being negative 93.4%.
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What the Zacks Model Unveils for International Paper
Our model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for IP this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here, as you can see below.
IP’s Earnings ESP: International Paper has an Earnings ESP of -32.71%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of International Paper: The company currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped IP’s Q2 Performance
International Paper's first-quarter 2026 performance reflected continued operational improvements, with higher converting run rates and ongoing footprint rationalization driving sequential cost savings. These improvements helped offset inflation and weather-related disruptions. Winter storm-related production disruptions led the company to defer certain maintenance activities to support inventory ahead of a heavier second-quarter outage schedule. The company expects maintenance outage expenses of around $214 million (majority being in the Packaging Solutions North America segment) in the second quarter, which is almost half of the projected $442 million for the year.
For the Packaging Solutions North America segment, second-quarter price and mix are expected to have improved, mainly due to a more favorable product mix. However, these gains are likely to have been partially offset by the impact of the $20-per-ton price reduction announced in February. Because of the normal lag in price realization, the $40-per-ton increase announced in March and the additional $30-per-ton increase in April are expected to benefit results beginning in the third quarter. Volume is expected to have improved sequentially, supported by seasonal demand and one additional shipping day.
We expect Packaging Solutions North America’s net sales to increase 4% sequentially to $3.77 billion. Compared with the year-ago quarter, it reflects a 2.2% dip.
Maintenance and outages are expected to have been higher sequentially as the second quarter is expected to have been roughly twice the normal outage schedule, which includes spending tied to the Riverdale conversion. However, input costs are expected to have had a positive impact due to favorable seasonal weather, partially offset by higher OCC and freight costs due to diesel prices. Factoring these in, the company expects adjusted EBITDA for Packaging Solutions North America in the range of $380-$410 million for the second quarter. Our model projects the segment’s adjusted EBITDA at $385.7 million, reflecting a 19% decline and a 25% year-over-year decline.
For Packaging Solutions EMEA, volumes are expected to have been higher sequentially, backed by improving conditions through the quarter. We expect the segment’s net sales to be $2.36 billion in the second quarter, indicating a 2% sequential increase and a 3% year-over-year increase.
However, the segment is likely to have experienced peak margin pressure as higher paper costs are recognized before packaging price increases are realized. Energy-driven paper cost inflation is being reflected immediately, while packaging pricing typically lags by three to six months, compressing margins in the near term.
Operations and costs in EMEA are expected to have been unfavorable due to higher distribution expenses across the supply chain and lower energy subsidies. Input costs are also projected to have increased, driven by higher OCC and energy prices. Based on these factors, management expects second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $150-$170 million for the segment. Our model estimates adjusted EBITDA of $159 million, down 24% sequentially and 18% from the year-ago quarter.
During the quarter, International Paper acquired North Pacific Paper Company (“NORPAC”) for $360 million. The deal is in sync with International Paper's strategic transformation to maximize value creation for customers, shareholders and employees. NORPAC's facility complements IP's existing mill system, helping it increase system flexibility, reduce costs and expand capabilities. IP will gain from NORPAC's attractive customer base, location and operational capabilities.
International Paper Stock's Price Performance
International Paper's shares have lost 24.1% in the past year compared with the industry's 10.9% decline.
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Stocks Poised to Beat Estimates
Here are some Basic Materials stocks, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.
Ternium TX, scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 earnings on Aug. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +21.40% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for Ternium for the second quarter of 2026 is pegged at $1.29 per share, suggesting an 0.8% year-over-year increase. TX has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.51%.
Avient AVNT, scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 earnings on Aug. 6, has an Earnings ESP of +0.87% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for Avient for the second quarter of 2026 is 89 cents per share, indicating an 11.2% year-over-year increase. Avient has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 2.1%.
Materion MTRN, scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 earnings on Aug. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +5.39% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Materion’s earnings for the second quarter of 2026 is pegged at $1.55 per share, indicating 13% growth from the year-ago quarter's reported figure. Materion has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 4.96%.
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International Paper Company (IP): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).