The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 27.
CAKE’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 10.1%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of CAKE
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 92 cents, indicating a rise of 35.3% from 68 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated price-eps-surprise | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Quote
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $998.5 million. The metric suggests a rise of 10.1% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape CAKE’s Quarterly Results
Cheesecake Factory is likely to have benefited from sustained sales momentum and continued positive guest traffic trends in the third quarter of 2026. The company entered the quarter with strong demand at its flagship Cheesecake Factory restaurants, supported by disciplined operational execution and effective customer engagement initiatives. Management indicated that the stronger comparable sales trends witnessed toward the end of the second quarter were expected to continue into the third quarter.
Emphasis on menu innovation, the Cheesecake Rewards program and increasing digital engagement are likely to have aided the company's performance in the third quarter. The successful launch of its mobile app, alongside personalized promotions and targeted social media campaigns, is expected to have supported customer acquisition, engagement and visit frequency. Meanwhile, the introduction of new Bites, Bowls and other menu offerings, with an updated menu rolling out through September, is likely to have strengthened the brand's value proposition and supported traffic growth. Management expected menu pricing to remain slightly below 3% during the quarter.
The company's diversified restaurant portfolio is also expected to have supported performance. Flower Child is likely to have maintained strong momentum, benefiting from demand for its health-focused menu, accessible pricing and differentiated dining experience. Continued traffic growth and consistent off-premise demand are expected to have supported the concept's sales performance. Meanwhile, restaurant expansion across its portfolio is likely to have contributed incremental revenues. The company planned six restaurant openings during the third quarter, supporting its broader expansion strategy.
Operational efficiencies and improving restaurant productivity are expected to have supported profitability. Stronger sales volumes, disciplined labor management and improved food efficiency are likely to have provided operating leverage.
CAKE expects third-quarter 2026 revenues between $980 million and $990 million, with an adjusted net income margin of approximately 4.3% at the midpoint of the revenue range.
However, higher marketing investments, commodity inflation and wage pressures are expected to have partly offset these benefits. Management anticipated low-single-digit commodity inflation and low-to-mid-single-digit labor inflation during the third quarter. Our model predicts total costs and expenses in the third quarter to rise 7.3% year over year to $933.4 million.
What Our Model Says About CAKE Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cheesecake Factory this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that's not the case here.
Earnings ESP for CAKE: Cheesecake Factory currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.34%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Cheesecake Factory’s Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #2.
Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Starbucks Corporation SBUX currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.24% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, SBUX’s earnings are expected to increase 40.4% year over year. SBUX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 8.4%.
Sweetgreen, Inc. SG has an Earnings ESP of +4.26% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s earnings are expected to register a 3.7% year-over-year decline. SG’s earnings missed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average miss being 43%.
Brinker International, Inc. EAT currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker earnings are expected to register a 29% year-over-year increase. EAT’s earnings surpassed estimates in all of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 6.2%.
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The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).