COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS Plc current report, Q2 FY2023

Business Context and Reporting Period

Company: Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Plc (CCEP)
Filing Type: Form 6-K (Report of Foreign Private Issuer)
Reporting Period: Six months ended 30 June 2023 (H1 2023)
Business Overview: CCEP is a leading consumer goods group in Western Europe and the Asia Pacific region, manufacturing, selling, and distributing non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. The Group operates two primary segments: Europe and Asia Pacific (API).

Key Financial Metrics

Metric H1 2023 (As Reported) H1 2023 (Comparable) YoY Change (Comparable)
Revenue (€M) 8,977 8,977 +8.5% (+10.5% FX-neutral)
Operating Profit (€M) 1,170 1,165 +11.0% (+13.0% FX-neutral)
Profit After Tax (€M) 854 847 +14.0% (+16.5% FX-neutral)
Diluted EPS (€) 1.86 1.85 +14.5% (+17.0% FX-neutral)
Net Debt (€M) 9,850 - -
Operating Cash Flow (€M) 1,307 - -
Comparable Volume (M UC) 1,631 1,631 +1.0%

Note: "Comparable" excludes items impacting comparability such as restructuring charges, mineral rights income, and flooding impacts. "FX-neutral" excludes foreign exchange rate changes.

Material Changes vs. Prior Period

  • Revenue Growth: Reported revenue increased 8.5% year-over-year, driven by a 10.0% increase in revenue per unit case (driven by price increases and mix) and a 1.0% increase in comparable volume.
  • Profitability: Operating profit grew 21.0% on a reported basis and 11.0% on a comparable basis. This was supported by strong top-line growth and efficiency programs, despite a 9.0% increase in cost of sales per unit case due to inflation and higher concentrate costs.
  • Volume Performance:
    • Europe: Comparable volume +2.5% (driven by developed markets and execution).
    • API: Comparable volume -5.5% (impacted by strategic SKU rationalization in Indonesia and Ramadan timing).
  • One-off Items: H1 2023 included €53 million in other income (€18m coal royalties and €35m sale of sub-strata/mineral rights in Australia), partially offset by €51 million in restructuring charges.

Guidance, Outlook, and Risks

  • Dividend: Declared H1 interim dividend of €0.67 per share. Reaffirmed guidance for an annualized total dividend payout ratio of approximately 50%.
  • Acquisition: Announced a non-binding Letter of Intent to jointly acquire 100% of Coca-Cola Beverages Philippines, Inc. (CCBPI) with Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc. for $1.8 billion. CCEP will acquire a 60% stake. Completion expected end of 2023.
  • Strategic Portfolio Changes:
    • Ending partnership with Beam Suntory in Australia/NZ (effective 2025/2026).
    • Ending partnership with Capri Sun in Europe (effective 2024).
  • Tax Outlook: Full year 2023 comparable effective tax rate expected to be approximately 24%.
  • Risks:
    • Macroeconomic: Elevated inflation, interest rates, and potential recession impacting consumer affordability.
    • Supply Chain: Geopolitical tensions (Ukraine war), energy shortages, and raw material constraints.
    • Regulatory: Potential taxes on soft drinks/plastics and water scarcity regulations (noted in France and Spain).
    • Cybersecurity: Increased cyber-attacks on bottlers and suppliers.

Investor Verification Checklist

  • Volume Sustainability: Verify the impact of strategic SKU rationalization in Indonesia on long-term API volume recovery.
  • Price Realization: Confirm the ability to maintain revenue per unit case growth amidst inflationary pressures and potential consumer pushback on pricing.
  • Acquisition Execution: Monitor the progress of the CCBPI acquisition, including regulatory approvals and integration costs.
  • Cost Inflation: Assess the trajectory of cost of sales per unit case, specifically regarding concentrate costs and energy prices.
  • FX Exposure: Evaluate the impact of currency fluctuations on reported results versus underlying operational performance (FX-neutral metrics).