Columbia Sportswear Company COLM is likely to register declines in the top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2026 earnings on Apr. 30, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $755.6 million, which indicates a 2.9% decrease from the year-ago period’s actual. This is in sync with the company’s guidance, which indicates a net sales decline of 2.5-4% to $747-$759 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share has been unchanged at 35 cents over the past 30 days, which implies a decline of 53.3% from the year-ago period’s actual. Management guided earnings between 29 cents and 37 cents per share.
COLM delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 25.2%, on average.
Columbia Sportswear Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Columbia Sportswear Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Columbia Sportswear Company Quote
Factors Likely to Influence COLM’s Q1 Results
Columbia Sportswear’s first-quarter results are likely to reflect demand softness, tariff-related pressures and cautious channel behavior. At its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company had pointed to overall softness year to date, with the U.S. business continuing to lag due to soft consumer demand and reduced retail traffic. At the same time, retailers remained cautious in their ordering patterns, creating a tough sales environment.
Tariff headwinds are likely to have put pressure on first-quarter profitability. The impact of unmitigated tariffs was expected to be more pronounced in the early part of the year, as price increases had not yet fully offset higher costs on existing inventory. This timing dynamic is expected to create pressure on product margins in the first quarter.
Inventory-related dynamics are also likely to have influenced the quarterly performance. The company curtailed inventory purchases earlier as a precautionary measure following U.S. tariff announcements, which left it light on inventory and unable to fulfill some demand. Management also noted that in certain cases, demand exceeded supply, reflecting the impact of these inventory actions. Additionally, earlier-than-planned shipments of wholesale orders shifted some sales into prior periods, affecting year-over-year comparisons.
Weather remains an important external factor. Management highlighted that weather can significantly influence demand patterns across periods. Operating expenses are expected to have increased as the company continues investing in marketing and brand-building initiatives under its ACCELERATE growth strategy. With sales expected to have declined and margins under pressure, this dynamic is expected to have led to SG&A deleverage in the first quarter.
Despite near-term pressures, Columbia Sportswear noted continued strength in international markets and early signs of brand momentum from its ACCELERATE growth strategy. New product collections and differentiated marketing have helped drive consumer engagement, which could provide some support to first-quarter demand trends.
What the Zacks Model Predicts for COLM
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Columbia Sportswear this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.
Columbia Sportswear has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. AMC currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.82% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $997.7 million, indicating 15.7% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for AMC Entertainment’s earnings is pegged at a loss of 32 cents per share, implying an 44.8% improvement from the year-ago quarter’s actual. AMC delivered an earnings surprise of 10% in the last quarter.
Marriott International Inc. MAR currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank of 3. MAR is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports first-quarter 2026 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $6.59 billion, indicating a 5.3% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The consensus estimate for Marriott International’s earnings is pegged at $2.60 per share, implying 12.1% growth from the year-ago quarter’s actual. MAR delivered a negative earnings surprise of 2.3% in the last quarter.
Cintas Corporation CTAS currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and a Zacks Rank of 3. CTAS is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.88 billion, indicating a 7.8% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The consensus estimate for Cintas’s earnings is pegged at $1.24 per share, implying 13.8% growth from the year-ago quarter’s actual. CTAS delivered an earnings surprise of 0.8% in the fiscal third quarter.
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Marriott International, Inc. (MAR): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).