President Trump continues his tough talk on his social media platform Truth Social this morning, which can be understood at this stage in the two-month war that negotiations are currently static. But for once, there may be something even bigger than the Strait of Hormuz affecting investors’ attitudes (even with Brent crude back up to $115 per barrel): in aggregate, this may be the biggest day of stock market news so far in 2026.
Not only is today the final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision under Fed Chair Jerome Powell — Kevin Warsh will replace him for the FOMC’s June meeting — but four of the “Magnificent 7” stocks will report quarterly earnings after the closing bell. The FOMC is 100% likely to keep the 3.50-3.75% Fed funds rate steady, as it has been since December of last year. For the “Mag 7” stocks, capital outlays toward AI investment will be closely watched.
Not only that, but we also see dozens of important companies reporting Q1 earnings before and after the bell that are unrelated to the AI trade, such as Phillips 66 in the early AM and Ford F, Qualcomm QCOM and Chipotle CMG this afternoon. Also, a plethora of economic reports greet us an hour before the opening bell.
Fresh Data for March: Durable Goods, Housing Starts & More
We see some unexpectedly strong economic growth numbers from March this morning, and we’ll start by discussing Durable Goods Orders: +0.8% is 4x what analysts had been expecting, the first positive print in the past four months, and the highest since +5.4% in November of last year. This follows an unrevised -1.4% from February.
Ex-Transportation, we see this bump up to +0.9%, and non-Defense, ex-aircraft — a proxy for “regular” enterprise spending — we see the biggest jump in almost six years: +3.3%. We can trace this boom to AI infrastructure spending, with the AI equipment segment up big: +3.7%. At least we’re beginning to see the results of AI investment make its way into metrics not directly associated with Big Tech “hyperscalers.”
Housing Starts for March jumped to their highest levels since December 2024 this morning: +1.502 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units was way up from the downwardly revised +1.36 million reported for February. For the first time since September of 2022, we saw a “5-handle” on 30-year fixed mortgage rates (+5.98%), and homebuilders responded in a big way.
Conversely, Building Permits — a proxy for March came down to +1.372 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units from February’s big jump to +1.54 million, and the lowest figure since August of last year. March is a key month here: that’s when the bombings of Iran started. Even though homebuilders were gaining momentum on lowered mortgage rates, uncertainty due to the war saw Permits — which usually go up in the spring months — take a tumble.
The Advanced U.S. Trade Deficit came in slightly lower than expectations: -$87.9 billion. This is the deepest level of 2026 so far, but still thankfully well off the all-time low -$135 billion we saw in March of 2025, directly before President Trump’s “Liberation Day” of massive global tariffs (which lasted one week).
Preliminary numbers on Advanced Retail Inventories blossomed to +0.7% in March from +0.1% expected, while Wholesale Inventories jumped +100 basis points (bps) from expectations to +1.4%, and 50 bps above the previous month’s +0.9%. These are both metrics that will add to quarterly GDP, albeit the “worst” sort of economic growth, as it anticipates sales that may or may not materialize.
Q1 Earnings at a Glance: PSX, ABBV, BIIB & Mag 7 Later
This may be the longest word-count for “Ahead of Wall Street” on record, as we’re just now getting to Q1 earnings ahead of the open. With this in mind, we’ll merely spot-check some key earnings data this morning:
Big Pharma mainstay AbbVie ABBV beat estimates by 3 cents per share to $2.65 on its bottom line and bumped up its guidance, but shares are flat on the news, even after falling -13% year to date.
Oil refiner Phillips 66 PSX posted a huge +189% earnings beat — +$0.49 per share versus -$0.55 in the Zacks consensus — on higher refining margins, largely based on oil price hikes from the Iran war. These shares are flat, as well, but +28% year to date.
Biotech giant Biogen BIIB posted a +21% earnings beat this morning — $3.57 per share versus $2.95 anticipated — while also outperforming on its top line. Shares are up +2% on the news, adding to the stock’s +4% growth from the start of the year.
After the closing bell today, Microsoft MSFT is expected to have growth +17.6% on its bottom line and +16.2% on its top. Meta Platforms META looks to have grown +4.35% on year-over-year earnings and +31.15% on revenues. Amazon AMZN anticipates a more modest +0.63% earnings growth and +14.24% on the top line. Alphabet GOOGL, with its massive capex spending on AI infrastructure, is projected to come in -6% on earnings and +20.6% on revenues.
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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).