Biotech bigwig Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 7, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $6.89 billion and $1.89 per share, respectively.
Earnings estimate for 2026 has decreased to $8.62 from $8.66 per share over the past 60 days, and that for 2027 has declined to $9.62 from $9.63 in the same time frame.
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GILD’s Earnings Surprise History
GILD has a good track record. Its earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining one, delivering an average surprise of 4.76%. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat estimates by 1.64%.
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What Our Model Predicts for GILD
Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP for GILD is +0.33%. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Influencing GILD’s Q1 Results
Gilead has a market-leading HIV franchise, led by flagship HIV therapies — Biktarvy and Descovy.
Biktarvy sales and Descovy for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) have fueled GILD’s top-line growth over the past several quarters.
Biktarvy is the top revenue generator for GILD. Per the company, Biktarvy accounts for more than 52% of the treatment market in the United States, and continues to be the market leader in major markets around the world. Roughly 80% of Descovy sales are for HIV prevention. Descovy accounts for more than 45% share in the U.S. PrEP market.
The top-line estimate for Biktarvy and Descovy is pegged at $3.3 billion and $632 million, respectively, and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $3.3 billion and $594 million.
GILD’s HIV portfolio received a boost with the FDA approval for its twice-yearly injectable HIV-1 capsid inhibitor, lenacapavir, for the prevention of HIV, under the brand name Yeztugo.
Early uptake has been encouraging, generating $96 million in fourth-quarter sales and $150 million in 2025. Management projects Yeztugo revenues of approximately $800 million in 2026, positioning it as a key incremental growth driver.
Gilead expects total HIV sales, including both treatment and prevention, to grow approximately 6% year over year. The guidance incorporates pricing pressure from government drug-pricing agreements affecting select legacy products, as well as potential channel mix shifts tied to proposed Affordable Care Act changes. These factors are expected to have reduced growth by roughly two percentage points.
The Liver Disease portfolio includes drugs for chronic hepatitis C virus, chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) and chronic hepatitis delta virus.
Sales from this franchise have likely increased in the first quarter, driven by higher demand for Livdelzi (seladelpar) for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC).
Veklury sales continue to be highly variable.
Cell Therapy product sales (Yescarta and Tecartus) have likely decreased in the to-be-reported quarter due to competitive headwinds, both in the United States and internationally.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Cell Therapy product sales are pinned at $432 million and $447 million, respectively.
Trodelvy, indicated for second-line metastatic triple-negative breast cancer and pre-treated HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer, likely experienced strong demand in the first quarter, similar to the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Trodelvy sales are pinned at $367 million and $352 million, respectively.
R&D expenses might have increased in the first quarter. SG&A expenses, too, must have increased, reflecting higher investments in sales and marketing to support commercial launches, offset in part by lower G&A expenses.
GILD’s Price Performance and Valuation
Shares of GILD have increased 6.6% year to date compared with the industry’s growth of 3.2%. The stock has outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 in this time frame.
GILD Outperforms Industry, Sector and S&P 500 index
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Going by the price/earnings ratio, GILD’s shares currently trade at 14.62x forward earnings, higher than its mean of 11.55x but lower than 16.18x for the large-cap pharma industry.
Investment Thesis for GILD
Gilead has a market-leading portfolio of HIV treatments and the franchise has put up a strong performance.
The company’s consistent efforts to develop additional innovative HIV treatments are being appreciated by investors. The initial uptake of Yeztugo is strong and further boosts HIV business.
Positive data from the phase III ARTISTRY-1 and ARTISTRY-2 (evaluating the investigational single-tablet regimen of bictegravir and lenacapavir for the treatment of HIV) studies is a significant boost for the company.
The approval of Livdelzi has expanded the liver disease portfolio, and its strong uptake must have fueled sales.
Trodelvy continues to gain market share in the second-line setting for metastatic breast cancer. GILD has already submitted two supplemental biologics license applications seeking approval of the drug for use in first-line metastatic patients. A potential approval in the first-line setting (regulatory decisions are expected in 2026) should have boosted Trodelvy sales.
However, the Cell Therapy franchise, comprising Yescarta and Tecartus, is currently under pressure due to competitive headwinds (both in the United States and Europe) that might have weighed on the top line.
GILD’s strategic deals and acquisitions to diversify its business are encouraging.
Stay Invested in GILD Stock
Gilead Sciences is one of the largest biotechnology companies in the industry, and companies of this scale are often viewed as relatively safe havens for sector-focused investors. Continued innovation within its HIV portfolio should support growth despite intensifying competition from GSK plc GSK.
GSK continues to grow its HIV business, driven by strong patient demand for long-acting injectable medicines (Cabenuva and Apretude) and Dovato. The solid growth from these drugs has helped GSK combat the decline in Triumeq sales.
GILD has also collaborated with Merck MRK to advance its HIV pipeline further. Data from two studies, evaluating Merck’s islatrovir plus lenacapavir, a potential first once-weekly oral treatment for people with virologically suppressed HIV, is expected in 2026.
The company’s strategic collaborations and acquisitions aimed at diversifying its revenue base are encouraging.
That said, we advise prospective investors to adopt a wait-and-watch approach as the Cell Therapy business continues to face competitive headwinds.
For existing shareholders, maintaining positions appears prudent, supported by Gilead’s decent dividend yield.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).