Tesla (TSLA) is about to release its Q2 2026 earnings report this week after U.S. markets close on Wednesday, July 22. The market received Tesla's previous earnings release somewhat negatively, but TSLA stock still trades at a premium valuation. The capex guidance was a little high for conservative investors.
This Q2 earnings report needs to be watched even more closely since it will be the first one landing after SpaceX's (SPCX) IPO. SpaceX's own earnings release will land on Aug. 6, so Elon Musk fans will have to choose between the two.
More Top Stocks Daily: Go behind Wall Street’s hottest headlines with Barchart’s Active Investor newsletter.
Tesla is entering a heavy capital expenditure cycle to build the massive computing infrastructure required for its real-world AI products. Wall Street will be heavily scrutinizing free cash flow to ensure the core automotive business can fund these multi-billion-dollar bets without draining reserves. Let's take a look at what you should expect.
www.barchart.comExpected Earnings Numbers for Tesla's Q2 Release
Wall Street wants to see adjusted earnings of 54 cents per share, with revenue between $25.7 billion and $26.4 billion.
www.barchart.comLast quarter, reported EPS (minus non-recurring items) beat estimates by 10.8% and 12.4% the quarter before (Q4 2025). Analysts would want to see a similar rhythm to offset capex pressure, so bullish analysts would want to see something closer to 60 cents.
Regardless, I'd warn that this is a steep increase in profits. 60 cents would mean a 50% increase, both year-over-year (YoY) and quarter-over-quarter. Tesla may not be able to manage that since the sales surge stems in part from large discounts and financing incentives.
There's a good chance EPS may stay flat or even decline, and you can say the same about TSLA stock regardless of what the earnings report is. Tesla's stock and earnings reports are notoriously unpredictable. If you're planning on another +10% beat, don't be surprised to see the plus sign flip to a minus. And who knows, the stock might surge regardless.
Other Important Expected Figures
EPS is the big one you need to keep your eye on. However, the market is also going to look at capex and deliveries. Both are going to have less of an impact on the price since Wall Street expects both to come in notably high, and it's baked into the price.
Total vehicle deliveries were reported at 480,126 units, up 25% YoY. Considering all the discounts and financing schemes, it's likely to keep climbing. But again, fuel prices started coming down in Q2, so that impact may lead some would-be customers to turn away.
Tesla raised its capex guidance last quarter to $25 billion. This is ~3x Tesla's historical annual capex run rate, and it might go up again due to component prices staying high. Tesla likely won't raise capex again unless it can post another giant earnings beat. If management gets bold and pencils in another capex surge without an earnings beat, I'd expect a 15-20% correction.
July 22 Is Just the Start
If you are buying TSLA stock, you should no longer keep your eyes on just Tesla. Elon Musk has built a roster of different companies, two of which are now public. SpaceX has overtaken Tesla as the largest one and is likely receiving most of his attention. Wall Street is increasingly (and probably correctly) speculating that SpaceX will swallow Tesla next. After all, most of Elon's other major companies have turned into SpaceX subsidiaries one after another.
It would only make sense if Tesla goes under the same roof as xAI, now that the market is convinced this is less of an automotive bet and more of an up-and-coming AI-robotics company. Tesla needs xAI to make its Optimus robots work, and xAI is now under SpaceX.
On that note, Aug. 6 needs your attention just as much as July 22.
On the date of publication, Omor Ibne Ehsan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
More news from Barchart
HSBC Says Apple Is Entering a Powerful New Upgrade Cycle. What That Means for AAPL Stock. Bloom Energy Stock Is Very Risky, But This Speculative Trade on BE Is Tantalizing Here Ahead of Tesla Earnings, Here's What Barchart Data Says Comes Next for TSLA Stock Dear Tesla Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for July 22