Northwestern Energy Group, Inc. annual report, FY2023

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. — 2023 Form 10-K

Reporting period: Fiscal year ended December 31, 2023. The filing also provides unaudited fourth-quarter results. NorthWestern provides regulated electric and natural gas service to approximately 775,300 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. A holding-company reorganization began in October 2023 and was completed on January 1, 2024; the 2023 consolidated results cover the predecessor’s same underlying operations.

Financial and operating results

Metric20232022Change
Operating revenue$1,422.1 million$1,477.8 millionDown $55.7 million
Operating income$300.5 million$263.1 millionUp $37.4 million
Net income$194.1 million$183.0 millionUp $11.1 million
Diluted earnings per share$3.22$3.25Down $0.03
Gross margin$416.3 million$376.9 millionUp $39.4 million
Utility margin (non-GAAP)$1,001.9 million$985.8 millionUp $16.1 million

Revenue fell mainly because of lower electric and gas retail volumes and changes in regulatory amortization; fuel and purchased-supply expense also declined. Higher Montana rates, lower non-recoverable Montana electric supply costs, and increased property-tax tracker collections supported earnings. These benefits were partly offset by higher depreciation, interest, operating and administrative expenses, and income-tax expense. Electric utility margin rose 3.1% to $806.1 million; natural-gas utility margin declined 3.9% to $195.8 million.

Fourth-quarter revenue was $356.0 million versus $425.3 million in 2022; operating income was $103.2 million versus $83.2 million, and net income was $83.1 million versus $66.7 million. Fourth-quarter diluted EPS was $1.37 versus $1.16.

Cash provided by operations was $489.2 million, up from $307.2 million, largely reflecting improved cash collection of Montana supply costs and rate-review amounts. Capital expenditures were $566.9 million, up from $515.1 million; operating cash flow less property additions was approximately negative $77.7 million. Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash totaled $25.2 million at year-end.

Long-term debt was $2.785 billion, including $318 million drawn on revolving credit facilities; finance leases were $8.8 million. Net liquidity was approximately $241.2 million at year-end, comprising $9.2 million cash and $232.0 million available revolver capacity. Availability rose to $325 million as of February 9, 2024. The company reported compliance with debt covenants. It targets a 50%–55% debt-to-capital ratio, excluding finance leases, and a 60%–70% long-term dividend payout ratio; these are targets, not assurances.

Outlook, material developments, and risks

  • The Montana rate-review settlement took effect November 1, 2023. It increased base rates and raised the PCCAM base to $208.4 million, with more timely quarterly recovery of deferred balances. A South Dakota electric rate settlement approved in January 2024 provides an annual base-rate increase of approximately $21.5 million, below the $30.9 million requested, effective January 10, 2024.
  • Management forecasts capital expenditures of $500 million in 2024, $506 million in 2025, and $463 million in 2026. It expects the 175-MW Yellowstone County Generating Station (YCGS) to be operational by the end of the third quarter of 2024. Approximately $240 million had been spent by year-end 2023; estimated total project cost is $310 million–$320 million. Permit litigation and related construction challenges have caused delays and increased costs.
  • Management expects the YCGS and a planned 2026 acquisition of Avista’s 15% interests in Colstrip Units 3 and 4 to reduce reliance on market purchases. The Colstrip transfer is for no purchase price but remains conditional, including regulatory approval and a new coal-supply agreement by December 31, 2024. NorthWestern’s current depreciable life for its Unit 4 investment extends through 2042.
  • Management estimates a 2024 effective tax rate of 12%–14% and expects minimal cash income-tax payments through 2028, citing a significant NOL generated in 2023. The 2023 effective tax rate was 3.7%, including a one-time $3.2 million expense for reducing previously claimed alternative minimum tax credits and a $3.2 million benefit from reducing unrecognized tax benefits.
  • Major risks include regulatory decisions that may delay or limit cost recovery; volatile power prices and reliance on market purchases amid regional capacity constraints; severe weather, drought, wildfire exposure, and potential uninsured losses; supply-chain inflation and construction delays; cyber or physical attacks; and changing environmental requirements. Proposed EPA greenhouse-gas and MATS rules could require costly upgrades or contribute to early retirement of Colstrip units. Management reported no cybersecurity incident with a material impact in 2023.
  • Environmental remediation reserves were approximately $25.3 million, within an estimated range of $21.0 million–$31.4 million. The YCGS permit appeal, Colstrip owner disputes and coal-dust litigation, and Montana riverbed-rent litigation remain notable proceedings; outcomes and ultimate costs are uncertain. Management did not expect other ordinary-course proceedings to materially affect results.
  • The company targets net-zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 2050; approximately 55% of 2023 retail supply needs came from carbon-free resources. It notes the transition depends on technology, costs, resource planning, and retirement timing for existing coal generation.

Investor verification priorities

  1. Track regulatory recovery and cash collection of Montana electric supply costs, including PCCAM balances and the effects of the updated tracker.
  2. Verify YCGS construction progress, final costs, operating date, and the outcome of permit-related appeals.
  3. Assess funding for the capital program and the $100 million debt maturity in 2024, alongside borrowing costs, liquidity, and dividend capacity.
  4. Review the conditions and economics of the proposed Avista Colstrip interest transfer, coal-supply arrangements, and potential environmental-rule impacts.
  5. Monitor weather, market-power prices, regional capacity and transmission constraints, wildfire exposure, and insurance coverage.

Deloitte & Touche LLP issued an unqualified opinion on the consolidated financial statements and on internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2023.