Yum China Holdings, Inc. quarterly report, Q3 FY2019

Yum China Holdings, Inc. — Q3 2019 Form 10-Q

Reporting period: Quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2019. Amounts are in U.S. dollars unless noted. Yum China operated 8,917 restaurants, primarily KFC and Pizza Hut, in mainland China.

Financial performance

MetricQ3 2019Q3 2018Year to date 2019Year to date 2018
Total revenue$2.319B (+5% reported; +8% excluding FX)$2.212B$6.747B (+4% reported; +9% excluding FX)$6.501B
Operating profit$300M (+11% reported; +14% excluding FX)$269M$807M (-6% reported; -1% excluding FX)$857M
Net income attributable to Yum China$223M (+11%)$203M$623M (-2%)$634M
Diluted EPS$0.58 (+14%)$0.51$1.60 (+1%)$1.59
Restaurant margin17.7% (+0.1 percentage point)17.6%17.0% (+0.1 percentage point)16.9%
Operating cash flowNot reported by quarterNot reported by quarter$1.045B$1.173B

Year-to-date adjusted net income was $631M versus $560M, and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.62 versus $1.41. These non-GAAP measures exclude the 2019 $8M transition-tax adjustment and the 2018 $98M Wuxi KFC remeasurement gain, among other related tax effects. Year-to-date adjusted operating profit was $807M versus $759M.

Q3 system sales grew 8% excluding FX and same-store sales rose 2%; year-to-date system sales grew 9% excluding FX and same-store sales rose 4%. KFC Q3 same-store sales increased 3%, while Pizza Hut increased 1%. Restaurant count grew 7% year over year to 8,917.

Cash, liquidity, debt and capital allocation

  • Cash and cash equivalents were $1.355B at September 30, 2019, with $364M of short-term investments. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled $1.364B.
  • Year-to-date operating cash flow was $1.045B; investing cash outflow was $553M and financing cash outflow was $368M. Capital spending was $310M. Cash flow from operations declined from 2018, primarily due to inventory-payment timing.
  • No bank borrowings were outstanding. Credit facilities totaled approximately $410M, with remaining terms of one year or less; $11M of capacity supported bank guarantees.
  • ASC 842 adoption brought substantial lease obligations onto the balance sheet: operating lease liabilities were $2.089B and finance lease liabilities $24M. Total lease liabilities were $2.113B; the filing says prior-year periods were not recast, limiting balance-sheet comparability.
  • The company repurchased $204M of shares year to date and paid $136M in common dividends. $756M remained under the $1.4B repurchase authorization. A further $0.12-per-share dividend, estimated at $45M, was declared after quarter-end.

Changes, management commentary and outlook

  • Q3 operating profit improvement reflected same-store sales and unit growth, labor efficiency and utility savings; wage and commodity inflation, promotions and product upgrades partly offset those gains. Management cited wage inflation of 5% and commodity inflation of 3% for the quarter.
  • Pizza Hut Q3 restaurant profit fell to $62M from $76M and its restaurant margin declined to 11.4% from 13.8%, primarily due to higher promotion and labor costs. KFC Q3 operating profit increased 16% excluding FX.
  • Year-to-date reported operating profit was lower partly because 2018 included the $98M gain on remeasurement of the previously held Wuxi KFC interest. Other pressures included inflation, promotions, and higher G&A expenses.
  • Management stated existing cash and expected operating cash flow should cover operations and anticipated capital expenditures for the next 12 months. The filing provides no specific earnings or revenue guidance.
  • Operating assets and most revenue are RMB-denominated. Management estimated that a 10% RMB weakening against the U.S. dollar would reduce Q3 operating profit by approximately $29M, assuming no changes in volume or local prices.
  • The company had placed $9M in escrow under an agreement to acquire a controlling interest in Huang Ji Huang, with closing expected in early 2020 subject to conditions; the acquisition was described as immaterial.

Risks and contingencies

  • A Chinese national transfer-pricing audit, ongoing since 2016 and covering 2006–2015 related-party transactions, focuses on the franchise arrangement with Yum! Brands. Significant developments are possible within 12 months, but the potential impact cannot be reasonably estimated; an adverse assessment could materially affect results, financial position and cash flows.
  • A potential Chinese indirect-transfer tax relating to Yum! Brands’ 2016 distribution remains uncertain. Any liability and related losses would be allocated under the tax matters agreement and could be significant.
  • The $232M input VAT credit asset depends on future utilization and tax interpretations; management said the benefit of the VAT regime may fluctuate and its interpretation is not settled at some local levels.
  • Other disclosed exposures include RMB movements, commodity costs, food safety, labor and competition, reliance on the KFC/Pizza Hut license arrangement, China regulatory and currency restrictions, and risks in e-commerce, delivery and new concepts. The company reported no material change to the risk factors in its 2018 Form 10-K.
  • Management concluded disclosure controls were effective at period-end and reported no materially affecting change in internal control over financial reporting during the quarter.

Important facts for investors to verify

  • Track comparable sales, unit growth and restaurant margins, particularly the recent Pizza Hut margin decline.
  • Assess operating cash flow and capital spending, and distinguish the effect of inventory-payment timing from underlying cash generation.
  • Monitor lease liabilities and lease costs when comparing balance-sheet and cash-flow trends across periods; lease-standard adoption changed presentation.
  • Follow developments in the Chinese transfer-pricing audit and the potential indirect-transfer tax exposure; the filing does not provide a clear estimate of either potential liability.
  • Separate recurring performance from the 2018 Wuxi KFC gain and the 2019 tax adjustment; review both GAAP and adjusted results.
  • Verify the progress and final terms of the Huang Ji Huang acquisition and the availability of cash across China and offshore entities, given tax and currency-transfer constraints.