NYMEX gasoline futures traded to a seasonal low of $1.6656 per gallon wholesale in January 2026. I asked what the prospects for gasoline prices going into the 2026 driving season were in a February 19, 2026, Barchart article, when I concluded with the following:
Seasonality favors a higher gasoline price over the coming weeks and months. A break above the $2.40 per gallon wholesale critical technical resistance level in the nearby futures could trigger a substantial rally, lifting the UGA ETF as it follows the futures.
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I wrote that article less than two weeks before the hostilities in the Middle East exploded, and gasoline futures moved through the $2.40 per gallon wholesale level as a hot knife through butter.
The UGA ETF traded at $67.93 per share on February 17, 2026, and was over 75% higher in May 2026.
Gasoline futures explode
Gasoline futures were in a bearish trend, making lower highs and lower lows from June 2022 through January 2026.
The monthly chart shows that the continuous gasoline futures contract fell 61.5% from $4.3260 in June 2022 to the low of $1.6656 per gallon wholesale in January 2026. Gasoline reached its high during the height of the 2022 driving season, and its early 2026 low during the heart of winter, when gasoline demand reaches its annual low. Gasoline futures took off on the upside in February 2026, reaching higher highs in March, April, and May. At the most recent high of $3.7640 per gallon wholesale, gasoline futures were 126% higher than the January 2026 low.
Gasoline has outperformed crude oil futures
The continuous NYMEX gasoline futures contract rose 126% from the low in January 2026 through the high in May 2026.
The monthly continuous contract NYMEX WTI crude oil chart shows the 114.3% gain from the January 2026 low of $55.76 to the March 2026 high of $119.48 per barrel. Meanwhile, the high in May 2026, when gasoline futures reached their most recent continuous contract peak, was $107.46 per barrel, 92.7% above the January low.
Gasoline outperformed crude oil from January through May 2026, highlighting a rise in the gasoline refining crack spread. Gasoline’s outperformance is driven by seasonal strength in spring and summer, but it also reflects geopolitical developments.
Seasonality matters less than the Middle East in May 2026
While gasoline futures tend to rally to highs during spring and summer, seasonality has taken a back seat, no pun intended, to the ongoing situation in the Middle East. The blockade and other issues in the Strait of Hormuz, along with Iran’s aggressive actions in the region, have raised significant supply concerns. Crude oil and oil product prices remain at the highest levels in years. Escalation over the coming days, weeks, and months that impact production and refining in the Middle East could send prices even higher. However, any settlement that removes the current supply fears could send prices appreciably lower. Therefore, we are likely to see substantial volatility in crude oil and oil product prices.
Levels to watch in gasoline and the UGA ETF
The U.S. gasoline ETF (UGA) tracks NYMEX gasoline prices. At $119.47 per share, UGA had over 141.4 million in assets under management. UGA trades an average of 46,152 shares per day and charges around a 1% management fee.
The daily year-to-date chart shows that UGA traded to a 2026 low of $60.70 on January 2, and rose 106.7% to a $125.47 per share high on May 18. At $119.47 on May 20, UGA remains near the high.
Technical support is at the April 17, 2026, low of $93.50, with resistance at the recent high of $125.47 per share, which is the ETF’s all-time high.
Watch seasonality during summer as the market’s sentiment begins to shift toward the offseason
The odds favor higher gasoline prices over the coming weeks, as seasonality and developments in the Middle East provide a turbocharged bullish environment for the oil product.
As the summer progresses, the gasoline futures market will shift its focus to the off-season for demand. However, continued hostilities and any escalation between the U.S. and Iran could cause gasoline prices to soar from current levels. The all-time high in NYMEX gasoline futures was in Q2 2022 at $4.3260, which is the ultimate upside technical resistance level. Meanwhile, UGA is already trading in record territory, having only reached $80.29 per share in Q2 2022.
UGA has already reached a record high, but NYMEX gasoline futures are still below the 2022 peak. A move above that level is certainly not out of the question. The path of least resistance of the oil product futures depends on the Middle East, which is highly uncertain in May 2026.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.