Applied Digital (APLD) will report first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Oct. 7, and the headline numbers could look worse than they actually are. Analysts expect revenue of around $135 million, roughly half the $258.7 million the company posted last quarter.
That drop is mostly about timing. Much of last quarter’s revenue came from what the company calls tenant fit-out services. That’s when Applied Digital customizes a data center for a tenant’s needs and the tenant pays for the work. Those payments come in lumps.
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What I believe investors should focus on more is rental revenue, the steady income that Applied Digital makes from leased space. Data-center rental and related revenue reached $50.6 million in Q4 fiscal 2026 as the first building at the Polaris Forge 1 campus ran for a full quarter. With 175 megawatts now live at the campus, that figure should keep climbing.
What Will Move Applied Digital Stock?
Looking further ahead, Applied Digital's backlog is huge. The company has signed about $36 billion in long-term leases across five campuses, mostly with large, financially strong tech customers. Wells Fargo estimates those signed contracts alone are worth about $30 per share, above where APLD stock trades today. That suggests investors still doubt whether the company can fund and build it all. APLD stock has roughly halved from its 52-week high of $50.72 seen in late May 2026.
Last quarter, CEO Wes Cummins said that Applied Digital was in advanced talks with two existing customers. The potential deals would add about 100 MW and 150 MW at materially higher lease rates. I think the company signing those expansions, or giving a firm update on them, will decide where APLD stock goes after this upcoming quarterly report. Signing the deals would show that demand is holding up, and that Applied Digital can charge more for new space. I will also be watching whether management sticks to its goal of reaching a $1 billion net operating income run rate.
About Applied Digital Stock
Applied Digital designs, develops, and operates digital infrastructure solutions for the high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) industries. It operates through its Data Center Hosting and HPC Hosting businesses. Instead of building traditional enterprise data centers, the firm specializes in high-density, low-latency infrastructure optimized for massive AI workloads. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Over the past year, APLD stock has fallen about 4%, underperforming the iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF’s (IFRA) gain of about 7% over the same period. The stock has been fairly volatile. At the end of May, shares traded near a high of about $50 but have continued to decline since then. APLD stock is up 3.5% year-to-date (YTD) versus IFRA's gain of 7% during the same period.
www.barchart.com What Do Analysts Expect for APLD Stock?
UBS recently initiated coverage of APLD stock with a “Buy” rating and a price target of $38. The firm believes the company has shown it can successfully secure leases and deliver large-scale AI data centers. In addition to UBS, Craig-Hallum analyst George Sutton recently maintained a “Buy” rating on Applied Digital stock. However, Rothschild & Co Redburn analyst Alex Haissl also initiated coverage of APLD stock with a “Neutral” rating, setting a Street-low price target of $22 per share.
Based on 16 Wall Street analysts with coverage, Applied Digital has a consensus “Strong Buy” rating. The stock has a mean price target of $63.09, reflecting impressive potential upside of 149% from current levels. The high price target of $99 is also quite impressive, implying potential upside of 290% from here. This suggests that analysts are mostly optimistic about Applied Digital's ability to benefit from growing AI infrastructure demand.
www.barchart.com On the date of publication, Jabran Kundi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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