ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. annual report, FY2010

Alaska Air Group, Inc. — 2010 Form 10-K

Business context and reporting period. This filing covers the fiscal year ended December 31, 2010; fourth-quarter figures are also shown. Alaska Air Group operates Alaska Airlines and Horizon Air, serving more than 90 destinations. The filing was signed February 23, 2011.

Financial and operating performance

  • Full year: Revenue was $3.832 billion, up 12.7% from $3.400 billion in 2009. Operating income was $471.6 million, compared with $267.4 million; net income was $251.1 million, or $6.83 diluted EPS, compared with $121.6 million, or $3.36. Operating and net margins were approximately 12.3% and 6.6%, respectively.
  • Fourth quarter: Revenue was $958.5 million versus $846.1 million in Q4 2009; operating income was $119.3 million versus $52.8 million; net income was $64.8 million versus $24.1 million. Diluted EPS was $1.75 versus $0.67.
  • Cash flow and capital spending: Operating cash flow was $553.7 million, up from $292.5 million. Investing activities used $295.2 million, including $183.0 million of capital expenditures. Financing activities used $333.2 million. Cash and cash equivalents declined to $89.5 million from $164.2 million, while cash and marketable securities combined rose to $1.208 billion from $1.192 billion.
  • Liquidity and debt: Long-term debt, including current maturities, totaled $1.534 billion at year-end, down from $1.855 billion; long-term debt net of current maturities was $1.313 billion. Shareholders’ equity increased to $1.105 billion from $872.1 million. Two $100 million credit facilities were undrawn; the company reported compliance with their $500 million minimum unrestricted liquidity covenant.
  • Margins and airline metrics: Alaska mainline load factor rose 4.0 percentage points to 83.3%; passenger revenue per available seat mile increased 7.3%, while nonfuel cost per ASM, excluding specified items, declined 5.0%. Horizon load factor rose 2.6 points to 75.7%, but reported pretax income fell to $7.6 million from $22.8 million.

Changes versus 2009

  • Management attributed the $203.0 million increase in pretax income mainly to $432.5 million of higher revenue, partly offset by $242.8 million of higher fuel expense. Passenger traffic increased 9.8%; average raw fuel cost per gallon rose 27%.
  • Consolidated fuel expense rose to $900.9 million from $658.1 million. Fuel represented 27% of operating expenses, compared with 21% in 2009.
  • Alaska’s passenger revenue benefited from stronger traffic and load factors, ancillary fees, and increased Mileage Plan revenue. Alaska reported pretax income of $401.6 million, up from $183.8 million.
  • Horizon incurred $13.2 million of restructuring and CRJ-700 transition costs. Excluding specified items, Horizon’s pretax income was $22.8 million versus $7.7 million in 2009; reported results were lower year over year.

Outlook, risks, and unusual items

  • Management identified rising fuel prices as its principal 2011 concern. It expected first-quarter 2011 economic fuel cost of about $2.80 per gallon, while stating that full-year fuel costs could not be forecast with certainty. Fuel hedges covered approximately 50% of expected 2011 fuel requirements.
  • Management forecast Alaska mainline nonfuel cost per ASM, excluding specified items, to decline 5%–6% in Q1 2011 and 3% for full-year 2011; expected capacity growth was 13% in Q1 and 8%–9% for the year. First-quarter advance bookings were slightly ahead of the prior year despite higher capacity.
  • Horizon planned to complete its transition to an all-Q400 fleet in 2011 and move to flying entirely under Alaska capacity-purchase arrangements. Management anticipated further CRJ-700 transition charges, potentially up to $3 million per aircraft at cease-use.
  • The company reported 2010 mark-to-market fuel hedge losses of $5.3 million after the filing’s stated comparison basis, versus gains of $88.8 million in 2009. Reported 2010 results also included $13.2 million of Horizon transition and restructuring costs; 2009 included $35.8 million of Alaska pilot-contract transition costs. Adjusted results are non-GAAP and should not be treated as necessarily nonrecurring.
  • Key risks include fuel-price volatility, economic and demand changes, concentrated exposure to Seattle and other core markets, labor costs and negotiations, weather and operational disruptions, pension funding, supplier/vendor dependence, and substantial debt and lease commitments. The filing also describes a possible credit-card receivables reserve trigger if cash falls below $350 million; no reserve was required at year-end.
  • Commitments include $3.775 billion of listed debt, lease, aircraft-purchase, interest, and other obligations as of year-end, excluding the January 2011 Boeing order from the contractual-obligations table. Including that order, firm aircraft commitments were approximately $1.151 billion. The company expected 2011 capital expenditures of $385 million.
  • Auditors gave unqualified opinions on the financial statements and internal control over financial reporting. Management also concluded disclosure controls and internal controls were effective at year-end. Routine litigation was not expected by management to have a material effect; the filing notes an SEC inquiry involving trading in Puget Energy securities and the company’s CEO, who was cooperating voluntarily.

Important facts for investors to verify

  1. Reconcile reported earnings with fuel-hedge mark-to-market effects and Horizon transition charges; review the company’s non-GAAP reconciliations.
  2. Assess sensitivity to fuel prices, hedge coverage and settlements, and whether fares and ancillary revenue can offset higher fuel costs.
  3. Verify the assumptions and funding needs for pension obligations, aircraft purchases, operating leases, and the LAX Terminal 6 project.
  4. Monitor the Horizon all-Q400 and capacity-purchase transition, remaining CRJ-700 dispositions, and related future charges.
  5. Review liquidity covenant headroom and the contractual triggers that could require credit-card receivables reserves.