CP

Business Context and Reporting Period

Company: Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CPR)

Filing Type: Form 6-K (Report of Foreign Issuer)

Reporting Period: Second Quarter and First Half ended June 30, 2005

Filing Date: July 26, 2005

CPR is a transcontinental carrier operating in Canada and the U.S. with a 14,000-mile rail network. The company reported record workload handling in the second quarter of 2005 while executing a major $160-million capacity expansion program between the Canadian Prairies and the Vancouver gateway.

Key Financial Metrics

Material Changes vs. Prior Period

• Revenue Growth: Revenue increased 10% in Q2 and 12% YTD, driven by a 14% increase in revenue per carload. This was achieved despite a 2% decrease in total carloads due to a strategic shift toward higher-yield traffic ("quality revenue growth strategy").
• Profitability: Net income rose 47% in Q2 and 90% YTD. Diluted EPS increased 45% in Q2 and 90% YTD.
• Operating Efficiency: The operating ratio improved by 2.5 percentage points in Q2 and 3.4 percentage points YTD, reflecting better fluidity and efficiency across the network.
• Cost Pressures: Fuel expenses increased 35% in Q2 due to higher crude oil prices. However, over 75% of this increase was recovered through fuel surcharges and hedging.
• Foreign Exchange: A stronger Canadian dollar negatively impacted reported revenues by approximately $35 million in Q2 and $64 million YTD. Conversely, foreign exchange losses on long-term debt decreased to $17 million in Q2 (from $20 million in 2004) and $20 million YTD (from $33 million in 2004).
• Coal Segment: Coal revenue surged 48% in Q2, largely due to a new agreement with Elk Valley Coal Partnership (EVC) and strong global demand for metallurgical coal.

Guidance, Outlook, and Risks

• 2005 Revenue Outlook: CPR expects revenue growth of 12% to 14% for the full year 2005.
• 2005 EPS Outlook: Diluted EPS, excluding foreign exchange gains/losses on long-term debt and other specified items, is expected to be in the range of $3.15 to $3.25. This assumes an average oil price of US$55 per barrel and an exchange rate of $1.23 CAD/USD.
• Capital Expenditures: Projected at $900 million to $920 million for 2005, with a focus on track-related investments and the Western Corridor expansion.
• Key Risks and Contingencies:
  • Labor Relations: Negotiations are ongoing with various unions, including the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) and Teamsters. Arbitration is expected for the Teamsters agreement by the end of 2005.
  • Environmental Liabilities: A $90.9 million charge was recorded in late 2004 for environmental remediation in Minnesota. Litigation against former lessees is pending, with a trial scheduled for 2007.
  • Pension Deficit: The defined benefit pension plan deficit was $604.3 million as of December 31, 2004. Contributions for 2005 and 2006 are estimated at approximately $300 million.
  • Commodity Prices: Volatility in crude oil prices remains a risk, though the company has hedged approximately 35% of remaining 2005 fuel purchases.

Investor Verification Checklist

• Verify the sustainability of the 48% revenue increase in the coal segment following the new EVC agreement.
• Monitor the progress of labor negotiations, particularly the Teamsters arbitration, for potential operational disruptions.
• Assess the impact of the strengthening Canadian dollar on future earnings, given the company's significant U.S. dollar-denominated revenues and debt.
• Review the status of the Minnesota environmental remediation litigation and potential recoveries from former lessees.
• Confirm the completion timeline and cost adherence of the $160 million Western Corridor capacity expansion project.