Unum Group UNM is expected to register an improvement in its bottom line but a decline in the top line when it reports first-quarter 2026 results on April 28, after the closing bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.92 billion, indicating 11.5% decline from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.06 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM’s first-quarter earnings has moved south by 2.3% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 0.9%.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for UNM
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Unum Group this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold). This is not the case, as you can see below:
Earnings ESP: Unum Group has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are both pegged at $2.06. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Unum Group Price and EPS Surprise
Unum Group price-eps-surprise | Unum Group Quote
Zacks Rank: Unum Group currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Factors Likely to Shape Q1 Results of UNM
Favorable persistency and better sales in the operating segments are likely to have favored premiums in the first quarter. Our estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium income are both pegged at $2.6 billion.
Net investment income is likely to have increased due to higher invested assets and higher miscellaneous investment income. Our estimate for investment income is pegged at $266 million, suggesting a 48.1% decrease from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $263 million.
The performance of Unum U.S. and Colonial Life — two of the largest operating segments — is likely to have been driven by stable overall persistency in the voluntary benefits and dental and vision product lines, and higher prior period sales in the voluntary benefits product line, improved benefit experience across life, accident, sickness, and disability product lines, and in-force block growth.
Better performance in life and group disability is likely to aid Unum U.S. results.
Our estimate for Unum U.S. operating revenues is pegged at $2 billion, while the same for Colonial Life is $523.1 million.
Favorable results at group long-term disability, Group Life and Supplemental are likely to favor Unum UK. This, combined with in-force block growth, sales and favorable overall persistency at Unum Poland, is likely to have benefited Unum International. Our estimate for Unum International’s operating revenues is pegged at $309.9 million.
Expenses are likely to have increased because of higher policy benefits, commissions, interest and debt expense, amortization of deferred acquisition costs and other expenses.
Continued share buybacks are likely to have contributed to the bottom line.
Stocks to Consider
Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:
Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $2.45, indicating a year-over-year increase of 59.1%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. RNR has an Earnings ESP of +2.97% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $11.07, indicating a year-over-year increase of 842.95%.
RNR’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.
The Allstate Corporation ALL has an Earnings ESP of +0.04% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $7.43, indicating a year-over-year increase of 110.4%.
ALL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
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RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR): Free Stock Analysis Report
The Allstate Corporation (ALL): Free Stock Analysis Report
Unum Group (UNM): Free Stock Analysis Report
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).