Etsy, Inc. ETSY is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 29.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $616.46 million, indicating a 5.33% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 62 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating strong year-over-year growth of 34.78%.
Over the trailing four quarters, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice and missed in the remaining two, the average negative surprise being 9%.
Etsy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Etsy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Etsy, Inc. Quote
Let us see how things are shaping up for the upcoming announcement.
Key Factors to Watch Ahead of ETSY’s Q1 Results
Etsy continues to operate in a challenging macroeconomic backdrop marked by persistent pressure on consumer discretionary spending, which disproportionately affects demand for non-essential, personalized and handmade goods. The company noted such pressures weighed on 2025 performance, with GMS declining and trailing broader e-commerce trends, while buyer metrics like active users and purchase frequency also softened, reflecting cautious consumer behavior. These trends, coupled with ongoing uncertainty around spending patterns, suggest that demand conditions remained fragile entering 2026. Accordingly, Etsy’s first-quarter 2026 performance is expected to have been impacted by subdued discretionary demand and cautious consumer spending behavior.
Etsy has been experiencing declining buyer engagement, with purchase frequency remaining modest at roughly three times per year and a notable shift of high-value habitual buyers into lower-frequency repeat categories, indicating reduced spending intensity rather than outright churn. Additionally, repeat buyers declined year over year, reflecting softer purchasing behavior and weaker engagement across the platform. Management also highlighted that retention and frequency have not met expectations, underscoring ongoing engagement challenges. Consequently, lower engagement and reduced purchase frequency are expected to have weighed on Etsy’s first-quarter 2026 performance.
Competitive intensity remains another key overhang. Management noted that Etsy’s perceived differentiation has softened over time, particularly as marketplace inventory expanded without effectively guiding buyers toward relevant and unique items. At the same time, the company operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving e-commerce landscape, requiring continuous innovation to retain both buyers and sellers. This erosion in perceived uniqueness, combined with competitive alternatives, has limited customer acquisition and engagement momentum. As a result, competitive pressures are likely to have constrained Etsy’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
Although Etsy’s investments in AI, personalization and emerging agentic commerce are strengthening its marketplace by improving how buyers discover and engage with its highly differentiated inventory. The company is leveraging machine learning and LLMs to better match buyer intent with listings, while personalized app and marketing experiences are driving higher engagement. Simultaneously, early integrations with platforms like ChatGPT, Google and Microsoft are generating rapidly growing agentic traffic, up 15x year over year, higher-value orders and reactivation of lapsed users. These factors are expected to have benefited Etsy in the quarter under review through improved conversion, engagement and incremental high-quality demand.
What Our Model Says About ETSY Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Etsy this time around. According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here, as you can see below.
ETSY has an Earnings ESP of +1.85% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some stocks worth considering, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season.
FIGS, Inc. FIGS currently has an Earnings ESP of +100.00% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. FIGS shares have rallied 45.3% year to date. FIGS is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results on May 7. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Murphy USA Inc. MUSA has an Earnings ESP of +5.01% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. MUSA shares have risen 31.6% year to date. MUSA is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 29.
Shake Shack SHAK presently has an Earnings ESP of +23.32% and a Zacks Rank #3. SHAK shares have appreciated 26.9% in the year-to-date period. SHAK is slated to report its first-quarter 2026 results on May 7.
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Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA): Free Stock Analysis Report
Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK): Free Stock Analysis Report
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY): Free Stock Analysis Report
FIGS, Inc. (FIGS): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).