We are now in the busiest week of this earnings season, and among others, five Magnificent 7 stocks will report their quarterly earnings. Fintech giant SoFi (SOFI) will release its Q1 earnings on April 29, before the markets open. While the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has soared to record highs, defying pessimism over higher energy prices and the fragile Middle East truce, SoFi is down over 43% from its all-time high and has lost nearly 30% this year alone. Let's look at SoFi’s Q1 2026 earnings estimates and analyze whether the stock is a buy before the report.
SoFi Q1 2026 Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect SoFi to post revenues of $1.05 billion in Q1, a year-over-year (YoY) rise of 36.1%, and in line with the company’s guidance. Consensus estimates call for SoFi’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to double to 12 cents, which is also in line with the company’s guidance. Given that SoFi has historically been quite conservative with its guidance, I won't be surprised if the company ends up beating Q1 estimates. That said, a beat won't necessarily mean a rally, as SOFI stock plunged following the Q4 2025 report despite beating on both the topline and the bottomline, with weakness in the Tech Platform business and ongoing concerns over a previously announced capital raise spooking investors.
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www.barchart.com What to Watch in SoFi’s Q1 Earnings?
Apart from the headline numbers, I will watch out for the following in SoFi’s Q1 earnings call.
Update on Muddy Water report: In March, short seller Muddy Water accused SoFi of accounting malpractices. SoFi, however, dismissed these claims and said that they “demonstrate a fundamental lack of understanding of our financial statements and business.” It also talked about exploring legal action against Muddy Waters, but we haven’t heard from the company since. During the Q1 earnings call, SoFi might provide an update on any legal recourse it is seeking. Furthermore, I believe it might be an opportunity for SoFi to brief markets about its accounting practices, as some of these, particularly on the fair value of assets, have been a concern for a section of the market. Delinquencies: Given the deterioration in the macro environment, I will watch out for the delinquency numbers in SoFi’s Q1 earnings call. It would also be prudent to hear the management’s commentary on the health of the consumer, as the company has a significant exposure to unsecured personal loans. Guidance: During the Q4 2025 earnings call, SoFi guided for a 30% YoY rise in 2026 revenue and members. It expects to generate an adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.6 billion, which represents a healthy margin of 34%. Management forecasts full-year adjusted EPS at $0.60, which is 53% higher than the $0.39 it posted last year. During the earnings call, I will watch out for any revision to that guidance, given the current macro environment.SoFi Stock Forecast
Analysts have been gradually getting bearish on SOFI stock heading into the Q1 report, and Truist Financial, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Wells Fargo, and KBW have lowered the stock’s target price this month. Overall, SOFI has a consensus rating of “Hold” from the 26 analysts polled by Barchart, while its mean target price of $23.93 is nearly 30% higher than current prices.
www.barchart.com Is SOFI Stock a Buy Heading into Q1 Earnings?
I believe SOFI stock is a buy heading into the Q1 earnings for three reasons. Firstly, much of the pessimism towards SoFi looks baked into the stock price after the YTD drawdown. Secondly, the concern over the U.S. economy and consumer looks overblown, as was evident in recent bank earnings, which indicated that delinquencies remain under control.
Finally, the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 30.5x, which, while higher than legacy banks, looks quite reasonable considering the at least 30% annualized revenue growth and 38%-42% annualized adjusted earnings growth that the company expects to post between 2025 and 2028.
Overall, I believe SoFi has a nice setup heading into the Q1 confessional and added more shares. While the stock's price action has been disappointing this year, I continue to believe in the SoFi story and would use any major dips to add to my positions unless something fundamentally changes about the company.
On the date of publication, Mohit Oberoi had a position in: SOFI . All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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