Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ is set to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 74 cents per share on revenues of $7.5 billion.
Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced CNQ’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.
Highlights of CNQ’s Q4 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the Calgary-based oil and gas equipment and services company’s earnings beat the consensus mark, but decreased from 66 cents per share in the year-ago quarter due to lower realized oil and natural gas liquid prices. CNQ reported adjusted earnings per share of 59 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 53 cents. Total revenues of $6.9 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.6 billion. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 13.3%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Canadian Natural Resources Limited Price and EPS Surprise
Canadian Natural Resources Limited price-eps-surprise | Canadian Natural Resources Limited Quote
Trend in CNQ’s Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised 19.4% upward in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates an 8.6% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues implies a 1.7% decrease from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider Ahead of CNQ’s Q1 Results
Canadian Natural entered the first quarter of 2026 with strong operational momentum, highlighted by record production levels and continued cost efficiencies across its asset base. The company achieved significant production growth of 15% in 2025, supported by high-margin liquids output and industry-leading low operating costs, which enhance profitability even in volatile markets and the same uptick is expected to have continued in the quarter to be reported. Robust reserve replacement exceeding 200% and a large base of long-life, low-decline assets are expected to have provided stable and predictable cash flows. Additionally, accretive acquisitions and increased 2026 production guidance, coupled with reduced capital spending, position the company for improved margins in the to-be-reported quarter.
On the bearish side, CNQ’s earnings could have faced pressure from macro uncertainties and operational constraints. Regulatory uncertainty has already led to deferral of major growth projects, potentially limiting near-term upside. Additionally, exceptionally high utilization rates seen in the fourth quarter may not be sustainable, creating normalization risks in production. Rising supply conditions and tight gas markets could have further compressed margins, increasing the likelihood of an earnings shortfall.
What Does Our Model Predict for CNQ?
Our proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CNQ this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here.
Earnings ESP of CNQ: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
CNQ’s Zacks Rank: CNQ currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some other firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Calumet, Inc. CLMT currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.51% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
CLMT is scheduled to release earnings on May 8. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Calumet’s 2026 earnings indicates 53.9% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $2.9 billion, the company’s shares have rallied 69.8% in a year.
Pembina Pipeline Corporation PBA has an Earnings ESP of +0.65% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. PBA is slated to release earnings on May 8.
Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBA’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 14.7% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $27 billion, the company’s shares have gained 19.4% in a year.
Ovintiv Inc. OVV currently has an Earnings ESP of +21.28% and a Zacks Rank of 2. It is scheduled to release earnings on May 11.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ovintiv’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 32.6% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $17.2 billion, OVV’s shares have surged 82.9% in a year.
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Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ): Free Stock Analysis Report
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT): Free Stock Analysis Report
Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA): Free Stock Analysis Report
Ovintiv Inc. (OVV): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).