Nebius Group Stock Soars 16% as AI Revenue Growth Hits 684%. Its Meta Deal Changes Everything.

Nebius Group (NBIS) is the kind of stock that makes you stop scrolling. The tech stock surged almost 16% on Wednesday after it reported Q1 revenue of $399 million, an increase of 684% year-over-year. And if you are wondering whether this is a momentum trade or something with real staying power, the answer appears to be the latter.

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Valued at a market cap of $53 billion, Nebius stock could continue to deliver outsized returns to shareholders. 

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Nebius Is Selling Out Everything It Builds

The key takeaway CEO Arkady Volozh provided on the earnings call was not a financial metric. It was this: "Everything we build with is sold."

Stronger-than-expected demand has forced Nebius to raise its midpoint capital spending guidance from $18 billion to $22.5 billion. In Q1, it reported revenue of $399 million, above estimates of $371.4 million. The core AI business grew 841% YoY to $390 million. Nebius reported an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $130 million, compared to a loss of $54 million in the same period a year ago. The adjusted EBITDA margin for the AI business reached 45%, nearly double its fourth-quarter level.

For context, this is a company that a year ago was generating just $50.9 million in quarterly revenue. It is now approaching a $2 billion annualized revenue run rate, with full-year guidance calling for $3 billion to $3.4 billion in group revenue.

The Meta Deal Changes Everything

Nebius closed the first quarter with $9.3 billion in cash. It also recently secured a $2 billion equity investment from Nvidia (NVDA), deepening a partnership that gives the company early access to next-generation hardware. That includes the Vera Rubin GPU platform, which is expected to be a significant driver of capacity heading into 2027.

But the headline-grabber is the Meta contract. 

The five-year deal is valued at $27 billion and is structured in two parts. The first is a $12 billion commitment for dedicated compute capacity, with delivery starting in early 2027. The second is a $15 billion option that gives Nebius the flexibility to either sell that capacity to Meta or offer it to its own cloud customers at potentially higher market prices. The structure provides Nebius with a financial backstop from a company with an excellent credit rating, while preserving the ability to capture higher margins if cloud demand remains strong. 

"We typically see several customers competing for every GPU we bring online," Volozh said on the call.

A Full-Stack Platform Built for the Long Game

Nebius has been building a full-stack artificial intelligence cloud platform that spans raw computing power, storage, inference tools, and agentic capabilities.

Nebius acquired three companies in 2026, which expanded its AI moat. 

Eigen AI, acquired for roughly $643 million, according to Reuters, was recognized by Nvidia as the top provider of inference speed. Clarifai adds system-level optimization. Tavily extends the platform into agentic search, a fast-growing market segment.

Nebius offers a robust platform that has gained traction across verticals such as health care, robotics, finance, and pharmaceuticals. 

Revolut, the European fintech giant, recently started using Nebius's Token Factory inference product. Robotics company 1X Technologies is using the cloud to train general-purpose robots. The pipeline of qualified opportunities grew 3.5x quarter-over-quarter, a record for the company.

Meanwhile, Nebius is building out physical infrastructure at scale. The company recently broke ground on a gigawatt-scale campus in Independence, Missouri, and announced a new Pennsylvania site capable of supporting 1.2 gigawatts of power at full capacity.

What is the Nebius Stock Price Target?

Nebius traces its roots to Yandex, Russia's largest internet company. After selling Yandex's Russian operations for $5.3 billion, the Amsterdam-based holding company relaunched as Nebius in 2024 and has since reinvented itself as one of the world's most ambitious artificial intelligence infrastructure builders. In the past 12 months, NBIS stock has been up 530%, driven by strong top-line growth and widening operating margins. 

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Analysts tracking the AI stock forecast revenue to increase from $3.36 billion in 2026 to $34 billion in 2030. In this period, Nebius is projected to allocate over $115 billion towards capital expenditures. Nebius is expected to remain unprofitable in the near-term and report a positive free cash flow of $1.37 billion in 2030. 

Out of the 15 analysts covering NBIS stock, nine recommend “Strong Buy,” one recommends “Moderate Buy,” and five recommend “Hold." The average Nebius stock price target is $175, below the current price of $227. 

On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

 

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