Can you say $100 oil?
The escalation in the Middle East pushed oil prices up for the fourth consecutive session yesterday. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed the day at $86.83, while Brent crude closed at $94.07 a barrel.
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As I write this on Thursday morning, the price for a barrel of WTI has gone over $90, while Brent crude has crossed $100.
The bad news means American consumers are paying $4 or more per gallon of gas for the first time since mid-June.
As the wall of worry grows, the S&P 500 continues to leak oil; it’s down nearly 1% over the past five trading days. Excluding AI investment, the U.S. economy isn’t looking nearly as healthy.
In yesterday’s options markets, volume was considerably lower than the 90-day average at 50.13 million. Trading was still bullish, with calls accounting for 57% of the volume.
Approximately 4% of the single-leg trades were for DTEs (days to expiration) of 120 days or longer. That’s my focus for today’s unusual options activity commentary.
Despite the small number of longer-duration calls and puts, there were 118 unusually active options expiring in 120 days or more yesterday. Of these, the SpaceX (SPCX) March 19/2027 $115 put was the third-highest unusually active option with a Vol/OI (volume-to-open-interest) ratio of 95.27, behind only Nebius Group (NBIS) at 204.01 and Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) at 109.27.
I’ve perused all 118 unusually active options. Twenty-three are worth discussing further.
Unusually Active Options Expiring in 2026
Of the seven unusually active options expiring in 150 days, the two Petrobras (PBR) calls, the On Holdings (ONON) put, and the GM (GM) put are the ones I’ve chosen to discuss.
First, and probably most obvious, are the Petrobras calls. They set up nicely for a Bull Call Spread where you buy the $22 call and sell the $30 call for a net debit of $0.76. It’s basically a bet on the $22 call, but lowering your cost by 11% through the $0.09 premium income from selling the $30 call.
Here’s the data for the big trade that took place yesterday at 9:41 a.m. ET. It accounted for almost all of the volume on the day.
Based on this trade, the net debit was $0.63, or 3.3% of the share price.
Here’s how the bull call spread looks early in Thursday trading.
As you can see, the potential payoff is enormous with a maximum profit percentage of 852.38% and a risk/reward ratio of just 0.12 to 1. With oil prices set to move higher, not lower, this bet seems very sensible.
As for the GM $80 put, the stock’s trading just off its all-time high of $87.62. For about 7.5% of the share price, and you bought the stock when it was much lower, you’re getting downside protection should the markets hit the skids in the next few months.
ONON stock’s lost 24% of its value in 2026. I like the stock’s long-term potential. If you feel the same, a cash-secured put would generate an annualized return of 9.0% [Bid price $0.98 / $27.50 strike price - $0,98 bid price * 365 / 150].
That’s not a huge return, but it allows you to buy ONON at $27.50 should it falter in the second half of 2026. That’s below its 52-week low of $31.41.
I’m tempted to go with the SOFI $25 call because it’s a cheap bet that the fintech can move back into the $20s, where it traded between July 2025 and February of this year. For 4.3% of the share price, a long call bet isn’t the worst move despite the technicals suggesting you sell.
However, I think the PepsiCo (PEP) Nov. 20 $160 call holds the most intrigue for me. PEP stock, relative to Coca-Cola (KO), has lost 25% of its value in the past 12 months. PepsiCo’s margins can’t hold a candle to Coke’s. A big part of that involves Pepsi’s decision to own its bottling operations. At the same time, Coca-Cola long ago exited most of its own bottling, which now accounts for about 10% of its overall revenue.
Of course, the troubles that have pulled PEP stock lower aren’t all going to be solved by November 20. Nonetheless, it has one more earnings report before Nov. 20. A good report could spark a nice rally. At just 1.1% of the share price, a long call is a tempting bet.
Unusually Active Options Expiring in 2027
If there’s a high flyer among the nine unusually active options expiring in 2027, it would have to be Airjoule Technologies’ (AIRJ) Feb. 19/2027 $5 call. The company has yet to generate revenue from its technology that makes distilled water from humid air. In fact, it lost $14.o million in the 12 months ended March 31.
However, the $5 call, which expires in 30 weeks, is a reasonable bet—the $1.80 ask price is 40% of yesterday’s closing price—given the company just announced a partnership with Kubota to evaluate its water-from-air technology in Texas and California. It will also distribute the technology to multi-unit residential properties in those states for Airjoule. I’m not a speculative investor, but those who are ought to be looking at Airjoule’s calls.
Of the more investable stocks with options expiring next year, Nike (NKE) and Netflix (NFLX) are the two that I find interesting.
Going long Nike’s June 17/2027 $42.50 call, the $6.85 ask price is 16.2% of its share price. While I’d normally say that’s too high, given the expiration is about 11 months away, Nike’s ongoing turnaround will be much further along.
Here’s how the $42.50 call looks so far in today’s trading.
The $49.25 breakeven requires the share price to increase by 19.6%. There’s a more than one-in-three chance of that happening. Nike has at least three earnings reports before next June’s expiry. With an expected move of 25.9%, there’s a realistic chance to make money on this bet.
As for Netflix, if you’re bearish, you could go long the put, and that would cost you $2.85, or 4.1% of its share price. However, the likelihood of NFLX being below the $52.15 breakeven is a little more than 20%.
If you’re bullish about Netflix, selling a cash-secured put and going short would have a much better chance of success.
You’d generate $2.60 in premium from the short sale, an annualized return of 7.6%. You’ve got a 79.12% chance that Netflix’s share price by March 19/2027 will be above $52.40, the breakeven.
However, if you’re bullish about NFLX, and you had to buy 100 shares at $52.40 at expiration, it would be the lowest level in over three years.
Unusually Active Options Expiring in 2028
Of the final three unusually active options from yesterday, I won’t discuss the GM call because I covered it earlier. VICI Properties (VICI) is trading at or near its lowest level in the past five years. I don’t see buying downside protection for the owner of casino real estate at this point. It’s already been hit quite hard.
That leaves Goldman Sachs’ (GS) June 16/2028 $1,640 call. Expiring nearly two years from now, the Covered Call appears to be the options strategy here.
In this example, you buy 100 GS shares for $106,719, and simultaneously sell a $1,640 call that generates $7,950 in premium. Because the expiry is 694 days from today, the annualized return is just 4.2%. That’s nothing to write about.
However, the odds of the share price being above the $987.69 breakeven in 23 months are stated at 56.0%. I would suggest they’re even higher than that. Goldman Sachs’ 3-year annualized return is nearly 48%. Unless we see a deep recession, the bank’s share price is likely to outperform and move higher in the next two years.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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