NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) stands out as America's leading developer of small modular reactors (SMRs), building light-water nuclear systems designed to deliver reliable, carbon-free baseload power. Its core product, the NuScale Power Module, targets a wide range of applications, from traditional electricity generation to industrial decarbonization, AI data center power supply, and hydrogen production. Notably, NuScale remains the only SMR developer to secure Standard Design Approval from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, a regulatory milestone that continues to anchor its competitive positioning in the emerging advanced nuclear industry.
A Wildly Volatile Trading History
NuScale's stock has been anything but stable. Over the past 52 weeks, shares have traded across an enormous range, from a low of $7.21 to a high of $57.42, before settling closer to $10.81. That volatility stems from a mix of factors: heavy retail investor interest, elevated short interest fueling sharp swings in both directions, and macroeconomic shifts in interest rates that disproportionately affect capital-intensive, pre-revenue growth companies. Compared to the Russell 2000, a benchmark of diversified, largely profitable small-cap stocks, NuScale carries a significantly higher beta and downside risk, reflecting its speculative, early-stage commercialization profile.
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www.barchart.com Q2 Results: EPS in Line, Revenue Sharply Lower
NuScale's latest quarterly report told a mixed story. Earnings per share came in at a loss of $0.13, matching Wall Street's expectations. Revenue, however, told a very different tale, plunging year-over-year (YoY) to just $0.08 million, a massive miss versus the $8.80 million analysts had forecast. Management pointed to shifting project timelines and a transition away from legacy development contracts toward newer commercial agreements as the primary drivers of that shortfall, characterizing it as a temporary disruption rather than a sign of deteriorating demand.
On the positive side, NuScale maintains a strong liquidity position, with roughly $1.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, giving it meaningful runway to fund continued development. Still, quarterly operating expenses reached approximately $55 million, driven by R&D, licensing costs, and supply chain buildout. Free cash flow remained negative, and both net margin and gross profitability stayed in the red, consistent with a company still in its pre-commercial phase.
Management remains focused on locking in definitive power purchase agreements and customer supply contracts, with an eye toward achieving positive operating cash flow as manufacturing scales. Executives also cited surging electricity demand from AI data centers as a long-term tailwind, projecting accelerating revenue growth as module production ramps up into the late 2020s.
UBS Downgrades NuScale
NuScale Power shares dropped 13.2% after UBS downgraded SMR stock from “Neutral” to “Sell,” cutting its price target from $10 to $6. Analyst Jon Windham warned that NuScale's early lead in small modular reactor (SMR) technology is fading as rival developers make faster progress toward actual construction. UBS also flagged a lengthy five-year build timeline and a lack of firm customer contracts, projecting only one NuScale project will break ground by 2028. The bank expects roughly $700 million in cumulative cash burn through 2028 and forecasts revenue reaching $924 million by 2030, though earnings are expected to stay negative. UBS's 2028 EBITDA estimate of just $29 million falls far short of the market's implied $124 million valuation, signaling the stock may still be overpriced.
Should You Buy SMR Stock?
Despite UBS's bearish downgrade, Wall Street remains divided on NuScale Power. Of 18 analysts covering SMR stock, six rate it “Strong Buy,” nine rate it “Hold,” and three rate it “Strong Sell,” for an overall consensus “Hold” rating. Notably, the average price target sits at $13.22, implying roughly 52% upside from current levels despite ongoing project delays and profitability concerns. The wide gap between bulls and bears highlights genuine uncertainty over NuScale's execution, making the stock best suited for high-risk investors betting on the long-term small modular reactor growth story.
www.barchart.com On the date of publication, Ruchi Gupta did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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