The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down -0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -1.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.47%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are down -0.29%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +0.36%.
The US stock market remains on the defensive today after Thursday’s sharp risk-off sell-off, which saw the S&P falling -1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 falling -2.9%. Investors dumped chip and AI-related stocks on Thursday as anxiety continues about whether the AI theme will pan out from a profitability standpoint. However, a partial recovery in chip stocks today is helping to support the Nasdaq 100 index.
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Higher oil prices are weighing on stocks again today, with WTI crude oil prices up more than +2%. Oil prices are seeing continued support from worries about Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and speculation about whether the US and Israel will launch new military attacks on Iran and/or the Houthis after next week’s Israeli election and the November 3 US election. The New York Times reported Thursday that the US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for renewed military strikes against Iran after the US and Israeli elections, although the report said President Trump has not yet approved those plans.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, told the Financial Times that the US is preparing for a protracted struggle with Iran and could still be mired in a stalemate a year from now. He added that the US Navy can maintain its blockade of Iranian ports for the “foreseeable future” and the administration is tightening economic pressure on Tehran.
The preliminary Oct S&P US manufacturing PMI rose +0.1 to 56.0, stronger than expectations for a -0.4 point decline to 55.5. The preliminary Oct S&P US services PMI fell by -0.9 to 57.9, which was slightly weaker than expectations for a -0.8 point decline to 58.0.
The final-Oct University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index was revised higher by +1.7 points to 48.0 from the preliminary 46.3, stronger than market expectations for an unrevised 46.3. However, the Oct index of 48.0 was down by -0.1 point from September’s report of 48.1 and posted a 5-month low.
Stocks are supported by the prospect of solid quarterly earnings. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Q3 S&P 500 earnings are expected to climb by +25% from a year earlier, up from a July estimate of 22%. As of Thursday, 113 of the S&P 500 companies have reported results, with 80% beating estimates.
Markets are discounting a 9% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.68%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.89%, reversing part of Thursday’s loss of -1.48%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.34%, adding to Thursday’s loss of -2.65%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are down -9 ticks following Thursday’s sharp rally of +1-07/32 points. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.5 bp to 4.988% following Thursday’s -16 bp plunge. T-note prices today are consolidating after Thursday’s safe-haven rally on the stock market sell-off and concerns that the US may launch new military strikes on Iran after the November 3 election. T-note prices are seeing some downward pressure today from higher oil prices and today’s +0.8 bp rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to 2.348%.
European government bond yields are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is down -0.8 bp to 3.342%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +3.0 bp to 5.355%.
Markets are discounting a 3% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven are narrowly mixed. Meta (META) is down by -0.5%, adding to Thursday’s loss of -7.0% that was tied to concern about its huge bet on AI. Tesla (TSLA) is up +0.5%, reversing part of Thursday’s loss of -3.2% that was tied to its mixed earnings report Wednesday afternoon.
SpaceX (SPCX) is up more than +1% today after Bloomberg reported late Thursday afternoon that the company is in talks with at least one major cellular infrastructure company to secure access to at least 80,000 cell towers to fulfill its ambition of becoming the fourth major wireless company. Cell tower companies are trading higher on the news, with Crown Castle (CCI) up more than +11% and American Tower Corp (AMT) up more than +5%. Meanwhile, wireless carriers are trading lower on the possible entry of another major cellular player, with AT&T (T) and T-Mobile (TMUS) down more than -5%.
Chip stocks are recovering somewhat today, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) up nearly +1% after its -6.8% plunge on Thursday. Micro Technology (MU) is up more than +2% today. TI (TXN), Marvell (MRVL), and AMD (AMD) are up more than +1%.
Crypto stocks are mostly lower, even though Bitcoin today has recovered by +0.4% after Thursday’s sell-off of about -4%. Bullish (BLSH) is down more than -3%, and Galaxy Digital (GLXY) is down more than -2%.
American Express (AXP) is down more than -3% after reporting that transactions on credit cards and other products in the latest quarter were below the market consensus and that revenue of $454 billion was slightly below the consensus. However, Amex boosted its full-year earnings guidance, and Q3 adjusted earnings of $4.68 per share were above the consensus of $4.49.
Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) is down more than -3% after a rating downgrade by JPMorgan to underweight from neutral and a price target cut to $11 from $13.
SLB (SLB) is up more than +7% after the oilfield services company, previously named Schlumberger, reported above-consensus earnings as Middle East activity improved.
Earnings Reports (10/23/2026)
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Co (BAH), First Citizens BancShares Inc/ (FCNCA), Gentex Corp (GNTX), First Hawaiian Inc (FHB), Rithm Capital Corp (RITM), American Express Co (AXP), SLB Ltd (SLB).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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