The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +1.56% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +2.28%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.41%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +1.73%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +1.88%.
US stock index futures rebounded from overnight losses and are sharply higher, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 1.75-month high. The Democratic sweep of Congress in the US midterm elections erased market uncertainty and bolstered speculation that Democratic control of Congress will curb further fiscal expansion, easing concerns about government borrowing and burgeoning deficits. Stock index futures initially fell sharply in overnight trade due to concerns about regulatory scrutiny, as a Democratic majority in Congress could dampen enthusiasm for the AI infrastructure buildout.
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Stocks also found support from today’s US economic news, which showed employers added more jobs than expected in the Oct ADP employment report and an unexpected narrowing of the US trade deficit in September, a supportive factor for Q3 GDP.
The US Oct ADP employment change rose by +86,000, stronger than expectations of +67,000.
The US Sep trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to -$105.0 billion from -$105.7 billion in Aug versus expectations of an increase to -$107.9 billion, a positive factor for Q3 GDP.
US MBA mortgage applications fell -1.2% in the week ended October 30, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -2.0% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +0.1%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell -7 bp to 7.30% from 7.37% the prior week.
The US Treasury announced no changes in its auction sizes and set its November quarterly refunding at $125 billion, in line with estimates. The Treasury will auction $58 billion of 3-year T-notes on November 9, $42 billion of 10-year T-notes on November 10, and $25 billion of 30-year T-bonds on November 12.
Dec WTI crude oil prices (CLZ26) are down more than -2% today and posted a fresh 3-week low on comments from President Trump, who said he had no immediate plans to launch strikes on Iran following midterm elections. Despite the ongoing US-Iran conflict, oil supplies are still leaving the Middle East, limiting the upside in prices. Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait climbed by 10% to 15.53 million bpd in October, putting them roughly in line with levels shipped at the start of the year, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Stocks are supported by the prospect of solid quarterly earnings. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Q3 S&P 500 earnings are expected to climb by +31% from a year earlier, up from a July estimate of 22%. As of today, 355 of the S&P 500 companies have reported results, with 83% beating estimates.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a 4-week high and is up +1.95%. China’s Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1-week high and closed up +2.16%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average fell to a 5.5-month low and closed down -1.42%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are up by +8 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is down -2.5 bp to 4.921%. T-note prices are moving higher today after the Democratic sweep of Congress in the midterm elections has led to a divided government that could reduce the risk of additional spending or tax cuts requiring more Treasury issuance. T-notes added to their gains today after WTI crude oil prices fell more than -2% to a 3-week low and knocked inflation expectations lower. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 2.5-month low of 2.280% today.
The markets are now pricing in a 79% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the FOMC’s next meeting on December 8-9.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.1 bp to 3.309%. The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 6-week low of 5.181% and is down -7.3 bp to 5.188%.
The Eurozone Oct CPI rose +4.0% y/y, right on expectations and the fastest pace of increase in more than 3 years. Oct core CPI rose +2.5% y/y, unchanged from Sep and right on expectations.
The Eurozone Oct S&P composite PMI was revised downward by -0.2 to 51.7 from the previously reported 51.9.
The markets are now pricing in an 89% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the ECB’s next policy meeting on December 17.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven Technology stocks, sans Nvidia and Tesla, are rallying today and boosting the broader market. Amazon.com (AMZN) is up more than +7%, and Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) are up more than +5%. Also, Alphabet (GOOGL) is up more than +3%, and
Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +1%.
Mining stocks are climbing today, with gold prices up more than +2% and silver up more than +4%. Hecla Mining (HL) is up more than +10%, and Anglogold Ashanti (AU) and Coeur Mining (CDE) are up more than +7%. Also, Newmont Corp (NEM) and Barrick Mining (B) are up more than +6%, and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO) are up more than +3%.
Healthcare stocks are moving higher today on speculation that a Democratic controlled Congress could roll back the Medicaid cuts in last year’s tax and spending bill. HCA Healthcare (HCA) is up more than +7%, and Centene (CNC), Molina Healthcare (MOH), and United Health Services (UHS) are up more than +6%. Also, the Cigna Group (CI) and Elevance Health (ELV) are up more than +2%, and Cardinal Health (CAH) is up more than +1%.
Defense contractors are sliding today on concerns that a Democratic-controlled Congress could bring tighter oversight, funding delays, and curtailed military spending. Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and L3Harris Technologies (LHX) are down more than -4%, and RTX Corp (RTX) is down more than -3%. Also, General Dynamics (GD), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), and AeroVironment (AVAV) are down more than -2%.
Block (XYZ) is up more than +15% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.13, better than the consensus of $1.02.
Arista Networks (ANET) is up more than +5% after reporting Q3 revenue of $3.66 billion, above the consensus of $3.33 billion, and forecasting Q4 revenue of $3.9 billion to $4.0 billion, stronger than the consensus of $3.57 billion.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is up more than +2% after reporting Q1 net sales of $19.95 billion, well above the consensus of $14.99 billion, and raising its full-year net sales estimate to $72 billion to $82 billion from a previous estimate of $65 billion to $72 billion, stronger than the consensus of $68.59 billion.
Amdocs Ltd (DOX) is down more than -29% after forecasting Q1 revenue of $955 million to $995 million, weaker than the consensus of $1.2 billion.
Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) is down more than -17% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $5.82 to $5.89 from a previous estimate of $6.15 to $6.24, weaker than the consensus of $6.20.
Datadog (DDOG) is down more than -13% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 10 after its Q4 revenue outlook was seen as disappointing by analysts who were expecting an acceleration due to AI demand.
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) is down more than -11% after forecasting Q1 revenue of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, below the consensus of $2.0 billion.
Tesla (TSLA) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) are down more than -4% on concerns that a Democratic-controlled Congress will lead to tighter regulations that stifle growth in the companies of Elon Musk, who aligned himself with GOP politicians.
Earnings Reports (11/4/2026)
AES Corp/The (AES), Aflac Inc (AFL), Albemarle Corp (ALB), Allstate Corp/The (ALL), Amcor PLC (AMCR), APA Corp (APA), AppLovin Corp (APP), Atmos Energy Corp (ATO), CDW Corp/DE (CDW), Cencora Inc (COR), CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF), Charles River Laboratories Int (CRL), Coherent Corp (COHR), Corpay Inc (CPAY), CVS Health Corp (CVS), Datadog Inc (DDOG), Edwards Lifesciences Corp (EW), Emerson Electric Co (EMR), Eversource Energy (ES), Expedia Group Inc (EXPE), Fair Isaac Corp (FICO), Fidelity National Information (FIS), Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST), Insulet Corp (PODD), Kraft Heinz Co/The (KHC), Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM), McDonald's Corp (MCD), McKesson Corp (MCK), MetLife Inc (MET), Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI), News Corp (NWSA), PTC Inc (PTC), Qnity Electronics Inc (Q), QUALCOMM Inc (QCOM), Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK), STERIS PLC (STE), Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL), TKO Group Holdings Inc (TKO), Trimble Inc (TRMB), Uber Technologies Inc (UBER), Vivmark Residential (VMRK), WW Grainger Inc (GWW), Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc (ZBH).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not directly have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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