Republican senators say the CLARITY Act is likely to fail when the Senate returns next week, according to Semafor. Crypto's lobbying arm calls that pessimism a bargaining tactic rather than a count of votes.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would decide which US regulator polices crypto trading. It has never reached a full Senate vote. The blockage is ethics language covering President Donald Trump and his family.
Named Republicans Put a Date on the Collapse
Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota told Semafor the outlook was poor. Two Democratic aides said negotiations over the ethics provision have barely moved since July.
"...if there's no interest in the White House in trying to bridge the gap on the ethics language, it is going to fail," Semafor reported, citing Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina.
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Senators vote at 2:15 p.m. ET on September 15, next Tuesday. That vote needs 60 supporters and only opens debate, so it cannot pass the bill by itself. The White House says Trump still wants the law and has already conceded sweeping ethics terms.
Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas added that voters back home never raise the bill with him.
Democrats disagree. A Reuters/Ipsos survey in August found most Americans disapproved of the money the president's family drew from digital assets.
The Lobby Says the Quotes Are Positioning
Alexander Grieve, vice president of government affairs at crypto investment firm Paradigm, reads the gloom as theater. He argues lawmakers leak pessimism to reporters to extract last-minute concessions from the White House or Senate leadership.
I think anyone who thinks CLARITY passage likelihood is near zero is making the mistake of reading commentary literally from unnamed staffers who aren't in the conversation (or who are trying to shape narrative), or Members positioning in the press to get last-minute priorities… https://t.co/v3EFwdBnu4
— Alexander Grieve (@AlexanderGrieve) September 8, 2026
Bank lobbying and advertising money is still moving ahead of the vote, he notes, which would be odd spending on a corpse. He accepts the calendar is a real problem.
"But this thing is not dead, not by a longshot," Grieve noted.
Traders side with the senators, with Polymarket pricing 2026 enactment near 16%, down from above 75% earlier this year.
Clarity Act Passage Odds According to Bettors. Source: Polymarket BeInCrypto reported in August that the bill would likely fail at this month's vote, and that Grayscale researchers saw the industry advancing without new legislation.
The Senate then disappears for almost all of October before the Nov. 3 midterms. Tuesday's vote decides whether the ethics fight was ever a negotiation or simply a wall.
Read the Original story CLARITY Act Death Watch: Crypto Lobby Says Washington Is Bluffing by Lockridge Okoth at beincrypto.com