Nutrien Ltd. NTR is set to release first-quarter 2026 results after the closing bell on May 6.
NTR beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the trailing four quarters, and missed it twice. It delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of around 14.1%, on average. The company is expected to have benefited from healthy demand for crop nutrients, its actions to reduce costs and higher fertilizer prices in the first quarter.
NTR’s shares are up 33.7% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 18.6% rise.
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Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
What Our Model Unveils for NTR Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Nutrien this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is just the case here.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for NTR is +13.99%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is currently pegged at 48 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: NTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.
What Do NTR’s Revenue Estimates Say?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter consolidated revenues for NTR is currently pegged at $5,356.7 million, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 5%.
For the Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) segment, our estimate stands at $3,439 million, indicating an 11.3% year-over-year rise. The same for the Potash division is pegged at $717 million, implying a 3.6% decline from last year’s tally.
Our estimate for the Nitrogen segment’s revenues is pinned at $795 million, suggesting a 16.7% year-over-year decline. The same for the Phosphate segment's revenues is pegged at $344 million, indicating a 4.4% decline from a year ago.
Factors at Play for NTR Stock
Nutrien is expected to have benefited from higher demand for fertilizers, backed by the strength in global agriculture markets, in the March quarter. It is seeing healthy fertilizer demand in its major markets.
Favorable farmer economics, improved affordability and low inventory levels are expected to drive potash demand globally. The phosphate market is also supported by low producer and channel inventories. Restricted exports from China have also led to supply tightness in this market. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer also remains healthy in major markets. Global nitrogen requirement is driven by demand in North America, India and Brazil. A resurgence in industrial nitrogen demand also bodes well.
Expanded planted acreage and increased crop input demand in North America and Brazil signal favorable conditions for continued growth. The company expects crop acreage to be consistent year over year in 2026, supporting its strong outlook for fertilizer demand in North America in the first half.
Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to have aided the company’s first-quarter performance. NTR remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. It has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow. It surpassed the $200 million annual cost savings target for 2025, achieving it a year earlier than its initial target. It expects sustained cost-reduction efforts across all geographies to aid margin improvement in 2026.
Higher prices of crop nutrients are also expected to have driven the company’s top line and margins. Strong demand and supply tightness have led to an uptick in fertilizer prices, with phosphate prices seeing a notable increase. Prices were driven by solid agricultural demand in major markets, China’s export restrictions, U.S. tariffs and higher costs of inputs. The upward momentum in fertilizer prices continues this year.
Nutrien Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise
Nutrien Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Nutrien Ltd. Quote
Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, scheduled to release earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +1.07% and carries a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for CF’s earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at $2.35.
Albemarle Corporation ALB, scheduled to release earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +20.21% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The consensus mark for ALB’s first-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.24.
Barrick Mining Corporation B, slated to release earnings on May 11, has an Earnings ESP of +1.97%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B's earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 74 cents. B currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): Free Stock Analysis Report
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Nutrien Ltd. (NTR): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).