The energy sector has remained in focus since the onset of the conflict between the United States and Iran. Since then, the energy market has remained on edge, fluctuating from highs of more than $100 per barrel at the height of the conflict to settling near pre-war levels after a peace deal was signed in Switzerland last month. The peace deal facilitated the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that accounts for nearly 20% of the world’s energy flows. However, renewed tensions between the two nations have once again raised uncertainty regarding shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting supply concerns and pushing crude oil prices higher.
The renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continues to be a major factor providing an upward push to energy stocks, including the refining segment. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have tightened refined-product markets at a time when global refining capacity remains constrained. While tensions in the Middle East continue to build, here are three refining stocks worth watching - Phillips 66 PSX, Valero Energy VLO and Par Pacific Holdings PARR.
Middle East Tensions Keep Refiners in Focus
Phillips 66 is a leading integrated energy player with exposure across refining, chemicals and midstream business segments. In its first quarter earnings call, management noted that the disruptions in the Middle East are expected to benefit U.S. refining players, including PSX. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have resulted in tightened refined product markets, particularly for jet fuel, supporting stronger refining margins.
In addition, lowering product inventories is expected to support refining fundamentals in the near-term. In addition, PSX remains largely insulated from crude supply disruptions, sourcing only about 1% of its crude from the Middle East, with the majority supplied from Canada, the United States and Latin America. This allows the company to sustain high refinery utilization while benefiting from higher margins.
Valero Energy is among the largest independent refiners in the United States, with a combined high-complexity throughput capacity of nearly 3 million barrels per day across its refineries. Its refining footprint is heavily concentrated along the U.S. Gulf Coast and the Midcontinent, offering feedstock sourcing flexibility, with management emphasizing that crude availability is not a significant constraint for the company. Moreover, its Gulf Coast access enables it to sell refined products in high-demand markets and capitalize on the current increase in export demand for distillates driven by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. This positions Valero to benefit from elevated refining margins and strong international demand for refined products.
Par Pacific operates across refining, logistics and retail, giving it control over multiple parts of the fuel value chain. Management noted that reduced refined-product exports from the Persian Gulf have tightened global fuel inventories and driven crack spreads to record levels. The company believes its commercial positioning and supply chain flexibility enable it to capture a substantial share of this favorable market environment. Additionally, Par Pacific has no crack spread hedges in place, allowing it to benefit from rising refining margins.
PARR sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while VLO and PSX carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).