The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 15, before market open. The company’s revenues and earnings are expected to have improved on a year-over-year basis.
In the first quarter of 2026, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by higher net interest income (NII) and fee income. Further, rising loan and deposit balances supported the results. However, higher expenses acted as a headwind.
PNC has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed estimates in the trailing four quarters with an average surprise of 8.95%.
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc Price and EPS Surprise
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc price-eps-surprise | The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc Quote
Factors to Impact PNC Financial’s Q2 Earnings
NII & Loans: In the second quarter of 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged while noting that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty and inflation remaining above its 2% target. The stable rate environment is likely to have supported PNC Financial's NII growth.
Management expects NII to rise approximately 3% sequentially in the second quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII of $4.1 billion indicates a sequential rise of nearly 3.2%.
Per the Fed’s latest data, demand for commercial and industrial, real estate and consumer loans was decent in the second quarter of 2026. As such, a stable rate environment and decent loan demand are expected to have supported the company's overall lending activity in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $552.4 billion, indicating a sequential rise of 2.2%. The company expects average loans to rise nearly 2%-3% sequentially in the second quarter of 2026.
Non-Interest Revenues: The second quarter remained challenging for the mortgage business, with mortgage rates hovering around the mid-6.5% range and affordability remaining strained. While purchase activity continued to face pressure from inventory constraints, refinancing activity witnessed a modest improvement. As a result, PNC's residential and commercial mortgage revenues are likely to have improved in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for residential and commercial mortgage revenues is pegged at $131.1 million, indicating a sequential rise of 11.1%.
The second quarter witnessed solid client activity and market volatility, though both were less pronounced than in the previous quarter. Market conditions were shaped by shifting expectations around artificial intelligence, persistent geopolitical tensions, lingering inflation concerns and the Fed's relatively hawkish monetary policy stance. Volatility across equity markets, commodities, bonds and foreign exchange is likely to have supported client activity. As a result, PNC Financial's asset management and brokerage income is likely to have improved in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $430.7 million, indicating a nearly 2.5% rise sequentially.
Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity moderated in the second quarter of 2026 after a strong start to the year, as ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, elevated inflation, a persistent backlog of private equity exits and higher interest rates weighed on deal-making. While deal value declined as only a few large transactions dominated the market, M&A volumes improved year over year. Despite the challenging backdrop, the increase in deal volumes is likely to have supported PNC's capital markets and advisory revenues in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company's capital markets and advisory income is pinned at $478.3 million, indicating a sequential increase of nearly 3.3%.
Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for card and cash management revenues is pinned at $765.9 million, indicating a sequential increase of 3.7%. The consensus estimate for lending and deposit services is pegged at $338.5 million, indicating a marginal decline from the previous quarter's actual.
Management expects fee income to decline nearly 2.5% sequentially in the second quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-interest income is pegged at $2.33 billion, indicating a 5.6% increase from the previous quarter.
Expenses: The company's expenses are expected to have remained elevated in the second quarter of 2026, mainly due to FirstBank integration costs. Continued investments in franchise expansion, technology and digitalization are also likely to have kept expenses high.
Management expects non-interest expenses to rise nearly 2% sequentially in the second quarter of 2026.
Asset Quality: PNC Financial is likely to have maintained elevated reserves, particularly in its commercial lending portfolio, amid persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. Additionally, the Fed's June statement signaling the possibility of a rate hike is expected to have prompted the company to remain cautious and build substantial provisions for potential credit losses in the second quarter of 2026.
Management expects net charge-offs to be around $225 million, down from $253 million in the first quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets is pegged at $2.55 billion, indicating an increase of 7% from the previous quarter. Also, the consensus estimate for non-performing loans is pinned at $2.45 billion, implying a sequential rise of 9.3%.
What Our Model Unveils for PNC
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for PNC Financial this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: PNC Financial has an Earnings ESP of -0.30%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
PNC Financial’s Q2 Earnings & Sales Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share has been revised downward to $4.51 over the past seven days. This implies a year-over-year rise of 17.1%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues of $6.42 billion indicates a 12.8% year-over-year increase. PNC projects total revenues to rise approximately 3.5% in the second quarter of 2026 from the $6.2 billion reported in the first quarter of 2026.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a couple of bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
The Earnings ESP for M&T Bank MTB is +0.13% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The company is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 15, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTB's quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at $4.66 per share.
U.S. Bancorp USB is also scheduled to announce second-quarter 2026 results on July 16, 2026. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.34% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for USB have been revised upward to $1.28 per share over the past week.
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